Weekend weather brief – October 15/16, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 15/16 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 15/16 OCT

NORTH

Another pulse of cooler air will move through the northwestern sections of the north region this weekend and through the remainder of the region next week, helping reinforce the cooler and drier conditions across the region. Skies will be partly cloudy ahead and behind the new front, while showers and occasional thunderstorms will pop up along the boundary as it slides southeastward.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                          Sun

Ulaanbaatar

5

41 3 37 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Vladivostok

17

63 17 63 Partly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

Beijing

19

66 21 70 Sctd. showers

Partly cloudy

Seoul

25

77 21 70 Partly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

Tokyo

22

72 24 75 Mostly fair

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

21

70 23 73 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Shanghai

24

75 26 79 Sctd. showers

Thunderstorms

 

CENTRAL

A stalled frontal system that stretches back into southeastern China will help provide some fuel for shower and thunderstorms development over the weekend, especially for offshore locations in the region. A new pulse of energy moving in from the northwest will keep skies cloudy over south-central China as well. Temperatures will be comfortably warm over the majority of the region this weekend, with the highest readings in the south and southeast.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming

22

72 21 70 Mostly cloudy

Sctd. T-storms

Hong Kong

31

88 32 90 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Taipei

29

84 31 88 Sctd. T-storms

Mostly fair

Naha

28

82 29 84 Sctd. t-storms

Mostly fair

Hanoi

27

81 34 93 Sctd. showers

Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

Typhoon 24W SARIKA, also named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, continues to bear down on the archipelago, with landfall forecasted for tomorrow. The latest PAGASA T.C.W.S. (Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals) are indicated in the graphic:

24W TCWS, 15 OCT

24W TCWS, 15 OCT

The storm will bring very heavy rain to most of central and south Luzon, with damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and the possibility for landslides in the higher elevations. For more on this system, please see the “tropics’ section of this report below. Interests in northern Vietnam and southern China should also monitor the situation concerning 24W SARIKA, as long-range forecasts bring the system into the area by early next week. For this weekend, much of the Southeast Asian peninsula will see a good chance for showers and thunderstorms as the area deals with the remnants of 22W AERE, while areas to the south will see just scattered to numerous thunderstorms as copious moisture gets a lift from the afternoon sun.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap

32

90 32 90 Partly cloudy

Thunderstorms

Ho Chi Minh

31

88 31 88 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Manila

30

86 29 84 Thunderstorms

Tropical storm

Davao City

33

91 33 91 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Brunei

31

88 32 90 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

Singapore

32

90 32 90 Sctd. t-storms

Mostly cloudy

 

TROPICS

As 24W SARIKA bears down on the Philippines, a newly-organized tropical depression, 25W, looks to threaten the nation again next week.

TAAG, 15 OCT

TAAG, 15 OCT

Typhoon 24W SARIKA, also named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, has strengthened overnight into a typhoon, and continues to move very slowly to the west-northwest. The system is expected to peak near 80kt (150kph) sometime shortly before landfall tomorrow in the eastern provinces of central Luzon. PAGASA T.C.W.S have been raised over central and south Luzon. This system is expected to make landfall tomorrow, and move quickly across the island of Luzon, exiting into the South China Sea, where it will re-gather strength before making a second and final landfall in Southeast Asia.

24W full, 15 OCT

24W full, 15 OCT

Tropical storm 1622/25W HAIMA was designated this morning by the J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency). This system is expected to track to the west-northwest, turning a bit more northwesterly during the middle of the track, taking the system VERY close to extreme northern Luzon as a VERY strong category 4 storm next week. Interests in western Micronesia and the Philippines are urged to monitor the progress of this system closely.

25W full, 15 OCT

25W full, 15 OCT

To the east, we have 95W INVEST, which is poorly organized as it tracks to the west slowly. Current long-range forecasts do not show development with this system, as most of the moisture is expected to be absorbed into TD25W to the west.

95W, 15 OCT

95W, 15 OCT

Elsewhere across the tropics, we have lots of moisture in place, and the warm sunshine will provide enough lift to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across most locales through the weekend.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Guam

29

84 29 84 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Yap

30

86 26 79 Sctd. t-storms

Tropical storm

Palau

29

84 29 84 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Chuuk

30

86 31 88 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Pohnpei

25

77 27 81 Sctd. t-storms

Partly cloudy

Majuro

29

84 29 84 Partly cloudy

Sctd. t-storms

Wake

29

84 29 84 Partly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

 

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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