Weekend weather brief – October 15/16, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 15/16 OCT

NORTH

Another pulse of cooler air will move through the northwestern sections of the north region this weekend and through the remainder of the region next week, helping reinforce the cooler and drier conditions across the region. Skies will be partly cloudy ahead and behind the new front, while showers and occasional thunderstorms will pop up along the boundary as it slides southeastward.

CENTRAL

A stalled frontal system that stretches back into southeastern China will help provide some fuel for shower and thunderstorms development over the weekend, especially for offshore locations in the region. A new pulse of energy moving in from the northwest will keep skies cloudy over south-central China as well. Temperatures will be comfortably warm over the majority of the region this weekend, with the highest readings in the south and southeast.

SOUTH

Typhoon 24W SARIKA, also named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, continues to bear down on the archipelago, with landfall forecasted for tomorrow. The latest PAGASA T.C.W.S. (Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals) are indicated in the graphic:

24W TCWS, 15 OCT

The storm will bring very heavy rain to most of central and south Luzon, with damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and the possibility for landslides in the higher elevations. For more on this system, please see the “tropics’ section of this report below. Interests in northern Vietnam and southern China should also monitor the situation concerning 24W SARIKA, as long-range forecasts bring the system into the area by early next week. For this weekend, much of the Southeast Asian peninsula will see a good chance for showers and thunderstorms as the area deals with the remnants of 22W AERE, while areas to the south will see just scattered to numerous thunderstorms as copious moisture gets a lift from the afternoon sun.

TROPICS

As 24W SARIKA bears down on the Philippines, a newly-organized tropical depression, 25W, looks to threaten the nation again next week.

TAAG, 15 OCT

Typhoon 24W SARIKA, also named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, has strengthened overnight into a typhoon, and continues to move very slowly to the west-northwest. The system is expected to peak near 80kt (150kph) sometime shortly before landfall tomorrow in the eastern provinces of central Luzon. PAGASA T.C.W.S have been raised over central and south Luzon. This system is expected to make landfall tomorrow, and move quickly across the island of Luzon, exiting into the South China Sea, where it will re-gather strength before making a second and final landfall in Southeast Asia.

24W full, 15 OCT

Tropical storm 1622/25W HAIMA was designated this morning by the J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency). This system is expected to track to the west-northwest, turning a bit more northwesterly during the middle of the track, taking the system VERY close to extreme northern Luzon as a VERY strong category 4 storm next week. Interests in western Micronesia and the Philippines are urged to monitor the progress of this system closely.

25W full, 15 OCT

To the east, we have 95W INVEST, which is poorly organized as it tracks to the west slowly. Current long-range forecasts do not show development with this system, as most of the moisture is expected to be absorbed into TD25W to the west.

95W, 15 OCT

Elsewhere across the tropics, we have lots of moisture in place, and the warm sunshine will provide enough lift to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across most locales through the weekend.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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