Daily weather brief – Monday, October 17, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 17 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 17 OCT

NORTH

Temperatures across the north region continue to drop as round after round of cooler and drier air from the northwest continues to push through. The latest infusion has lowered temperatures across the northwestern two-thirds of the region as the frontal system continues to move to the east, just offshore of Japan. Skies will be cloudy over the Korean peninsula and eastern China, while japan will see a good chance for rainfall through the day. While it will be a bit chilly in portions of northern China and Mongolia, the remainder of the region will enjoy a comfortably warm afternoon.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

8

-4 46 25

Partly cloudy

Vladivostok

18

6 64 43

Partly cloudy

Beijing

20

9 68 48

Partly cloudy

Seoul

22

11 72 52

Mostly cloudy

Tokyo

21

18 70 64

Periods of rain

Xi’an

25

12 77 54

Partly cloudy

Shanghai

23

19 73 66

Mostly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

As slightly cooler air settles in over the south-central high country of China, locations to the east and south with see warm, moist air in place, with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Northern Vietnam and southern China are closely monitoring the progress of typhoon 24W SARIKA as it tracks west-northwestward over the South China Sea. The system is expected to affect these areas starting tomorrow as the system strengthens before one final series of landfall events over Hainan Island and into the continent near the Vietnam/China border.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

17

12 63 54

Thunderstorms possible

Hong Kong

29

25 84 77

Scattered showers possible

Taipei

31

25 88 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Naha

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Hanoi

34

24 93 75

Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

Residents of the central and eastern provinces of Luzon in the Philippines are picking up the pieces left behind by typhoon 24W SARIKA, also named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, which made landfall very early Sunday morning local time. The system is now in the South China Sea and is tracking towards northern Vietnam and southern China. Now the attention in the Philippines turns back to the east, as typhoon 25W HAIMA gets wound up, with current forecasts showing a very powerful system coming quite close to extreme northern Luzon later this week. For more information on these systems, please see the “tropics” section of this report. Elsewhere across the south, it will be another typical day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms, especially over the central and southern portions of Indochina, as the tropical moisture gets lifted up by the warm afternoon sun.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

31

25 88 79

Thunderstorms possible

Davao City

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

Two systems remain in the NWPAC today, as 24W SARIKA moves towards southern China and northern Vietnam, and 25W HAIMA gathers strength in western Micronesia.

TAAG, 17 OCT

TAAG, 17 OCT

Typhoon 24W SARIKA, also named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, continues to re-gather itself as it tracks to the west-northwest of the warm water of the South China Sea. This storm left a narrow wake of destruction over portions of eastern and central Luzon in the Philippines as it made landfall early Sunday morning. The storm is expected to strengthen back to a category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale before making landfall in Hainan Island during the day tomorrow, with a final landfall in northern Vietnam as a weakened shell of its former self.

24W full, 17 OCT

24W full, 17 OCT

Typhoon 25W HAIMA is quickly gathering strength in western Micronesia as conditions continue to favor development of the storm. HAIMA has big plans, as current forecasts show this system to reach a peak intensity near 145kt (269kph), a strong category 5 super typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale, sometime overnight Tuesday/Wednesday before passing very close to, and perhaps making landfall at, the extreme northeastern tip of the island of Luzon in the Philippines during the day Wednesday. Residents of the Philippines are urged to monitor the progress of this system closely over the next 48 hours.

25W full, 17 OCT

25W full, 17 OCT

Elsewhere in the tropics, with plenty of moisture in place, the warm sunshine will find it easy to stir up scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, with Yap and Palau seeing increased chances due to the proximity of HAIMA.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Yap

29

26 84 79

Tropical storm conditions

Palau

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

28

22 82 72

Partly cloudy

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Wake

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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