Archive | October 17, 2016

TYPHOON HAIMA / LAWIN INTENSIFIES AS IT NEARS LUZON

Typhoon Haima continues to intensify this morning upgrading to a “very strong” typhoon by JMA with winds up to 252kph and pressure down below 925hpa. The first images at sunrise display an impressive storm that should indicate to anyone ahead of it this is a serious and potentially dangerous storm system.

 

During the morning hours it does look like at least for now it is going through a eye wall replacement cycle. This means a short period of weakening is possible before it re-intensifies further when the Typhoon machine gets turned back on fully.

 track

Impacts, “When and Where”

 

Already signal #1 warnings have been issued in North East Luzon, this is basically the equivalent of a “Typhoon Watch” for this area as one can be assure it will climb up to a 3 and possibly level 4 as Haima nears.

 

IMPACTS

IMPACTS

Throughout the day on Wednesday conditions in north east Luzon will go down hill with the worst of the weather likely being overnight in to early morning Thursday across parts of Isabella and Cagayan.

 

Good news is this area is built for typhoons and residents have become hardy to them, but just coming off of the recent Typhoon Sarika “Karen” many locations may still be recovering or structures may have already had been weakened by that storm making them more vulnerable to Haima.

Check Satellite Imagery Here 

The same thing goes for the rainfall, much of the soil across central and northern Luzon has been saturated and flooding has already been taking place as shown in the video below shot by Videographer James Reynolds during “Sarika”.

NASA satellite estimates also confirm this with a few locations receiving up to 400-500mm of total rainfall over the past weekend. This means flooding and landslides especially in rural areas or areas with poor infrastructure will be a high risk with Haima moving over head. This will be especially true from Ilagan City north through Aparri.

7 Day Total Rainfall

7 Day Total Rainfall

The Chance of the track wavering?

 

ECMWF ENSEMBLE

ECMWF ENSEMBLE

 

 

One of the most common questions I get, “Is it possible for the storms track to change north or south?” Two things to answer this question.

  • The question is always going to be “yes”. Of course it is possible for the storms track to change, a better question would be “what are the chances or is it likely”.
  • At this time if the track does waver it shouldn’t be too much, most model consensus and the agencies all agree on the track to the north west following south of a high pressure ridge located near Okinawa before turning north towards the Hong Kong area later in the week.

 

LONG RANGE

 

Keeping a close eye on Hong Kong and if the storm could impact that area. Right now models are taking the storm close to the city but some are also pulling it further east in to Fujian, its all about how it rounds the sub-tropical ridge later this week, and is why checking back in on updates with the storm is smart.

 

COMPARING HAIYAN TO HAIMA!

 

This is a disturbing trend I have been seeing in social media this week, granted Haima looks dangerous and could very well be deadly if people do not prepare it is no Haiyan.

 

First, Haima is smaller than Haiyan in about every way possible.

Second, It is heading towards a area more used to typhoons and prepared, instead of the low lying coastal villages of Samar and Leyte

Last, there has been lots of improvements in warnings since Haiyan, granted there is still much more to be done it feels like the government is much more swift and serious about getting people out of harms way.

 

 

 

Strengthening Typhoon Haima Eyes Northern Luzon

In the wake of Sarika (Karen) another typhoon is emerging in the waters of the Philippine sea and is expected to roll west in to the Philippines by mid-week.  This storm is projected to take a “Megi 2010” like track in to north eastern Luzon.

 

The good news is from Cagayan south in to Isabela is a region known for getting typhoons and has become hardy against them. Even still a second one in less than a week will put a lot of stress on the already fragile infrastructure in the region.

JTWC TRACK

Monday

 

Haima is located north of Yap and tracking west after bringing tropical storm strength gust to that small island south west of Guam. Yap had high wind warnings issued for it Monday morning but it since has been dropped as conditions improved during the afternoon.

Model Esemble

Model Esemble

Tuesday

 

Haima will continue to intensify as it works its way through a area favorable for development in the Philippine sea.  Most agencies agree with this forecast with JTWC expected a super typhoon and JMA expecting a violent intensity storm by Tuesday evening.

Check latest Satellite Imagery Here

Wednesday

 

Depending on the speed of the storm over the next 48hrs conditions across Luzon will likely worsen sometime Wednesday.  Those ahead of the storm should have preparations for a violent typhoon done by Wednesday morning along with coastal evacuations especially in the north side of the storms center line.

 

Storm surge could flood low lying areas ahead of Haima but also the wind damage will be an issue; mainly because lot of buildings may already have things jarred loose from the last storm and more prone to being picked by high winds.

 

By Tuesday a more concrete and detailed forecast will be posted, for now though keep checking in for new updates on our facebook page and also here on the website.

More information on Sarika can be found here. 

 

 

 

TYPHOON SARIKA KILLS 2, HEADS TOWARDS FLOOD STRICKEN VIETNAM

Typhoon Sarika / (Karen) continues to stir up the waters west of Luzon after battering the Philippines this past weekend leaving 2 dead and 3 missing in its wake.

Now people in southern China and Vietnam brace for the impending storm.

The Philippines

 

Typhoon Sarika (Known as Karen in the Philippines) made landfall early Sunday morning in Bicol as a Category 4 equivalent Typhoon according the US Military.

According to Rappler 2 people and 3 are missing due to the storm. All fishermen who ventured amidst the rough weather.

 

Good news is thousands were evacuated ahead of the storm from coastal areas likely vastly reducing the loss of life and impact from the storm. This is something the Philippine government has improved on vastly over the past several years, especially in the wake of Haiyan.

 

The storm weakened quite quickly as it cross Luzon resulting in relatively calmer conditions in the Manila area. Some power outages were reported and localized flooding but overall the winds stayed mild with max gust only around 20kts at the Manila airport.

 

Subic bay just to the north seen a max wind gust around 40kts as the storm drifted by.

 

The worst of the weather was on the east coast of course, in Baler Videographer James Reynolds documented the storm as it raged on shore Sunday morning.

 

Southern China and Vietnam

 

Last week rains from former Tropical Storm Aeres swamped central and northern Vietnam leaving 21 dead and thousands of homes flooded. Of course the last thing they need here is more rainfall but sadly that may be the case as Sarika tracks west first in to Hainan then northern Vietnam.

 

Hanoi could take the brunt of what will likely be a category 2 equivalent typhoon as we head in to Tuesday morning.

 

Further west Northern Vietnam will be impacted after the storm rolls over the Gulf of Tonkin in to Wednesday morning. Some areas could see rainfall in excess of 200-300mm further hampering recovery efforts from the flooding already taking place across the area.

Check how much rainfall has already impacted this region via the TRMM satellite here. 

The next storm?

 

Check the website for another update on Haima, now a ever growing typhoon and potential super typhoon to impact northern Luzon by mid-week.