Daily weather brief – Tuesday, October 18, 2016

NWPAC outlooki, 18 OCT

NORTH

A new shot of cold air brings colder temperatures and snowfall to Mongolia and parts of northern China today. An earlier cold front is pushing offshore of Japan after bringing about some spotty severe weather yesterday across the archipelago. The warmest spots in the region will be central China, where warm air advection ahead of the new surge will heart things up a bit, and in japan, where high pressure is just settling in. Skies will be fair to partly cloudy across much of the region, with clouds and snow for areas to the far north, and few clouds hanging around along the eastern coast of China.

CENTRAL

Most attention is turned to the South China Sea, where typhoon 24W SARIKA continues to bear down on Hainan Island. The storm will slam into the island as a strong system, and then weaken quickly as it moves across and makes a second landfall near the Vietnam/China border. Some of this moisture will bring about a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to Hong Kong and Taiwan today. Temperatures will be fairly warm across the region, as tropical moisture builds back in and warmer air moves northward ahead of a new cold surge coming down later in the week. Long-range attention is also focused on typhoon 25W HAIMA, as forecasts show the system making landfall along the southeastern coast of China as we head into the coming weekend.

SOUTH

Typhoon 24W SARIKA is threatening Hainan Island today, as residents there prepare for the storm to make landfall very soon. SARIKA will traverse the island rather quickly while weakening and make a second landfall in northern Vietnam near the Chinese border. Attention in the Philippines is firmly on typhoon 25W HAIMA, also named “Lawin” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, as current forecasts show the system to cross the extreme northern tip of Luzon island tomorrow as a very strong system. For more information on these storms, please see the “tropics’ section of this report. Elsewhere across the region, deep moisture and warm sunshine will combine to bring about a very good chance for showers and thunderstorms for most locations, while temperatures stay hot and balmy.

TROPICS

Two active systems remain in the NWPAC, as 24W SARIKA gets ready to make landfall in China, and 25W HAIMA sets its sights on the northern Philippines.

TAAG, 18 OCT

Typhoon 24W SARIKA has had a hard time gathering itself back together after passing through the northern Philippines last weekend. As is the case many times when storms travel this path, the higher terrain of the island of Luzon was just too much for the system, and disrupted the circulation to an extent that it will never recover its former strength levels. SARIKA will make landfall in Hainan Island today, crossing over quickly and weakening, and making a second and final landfall over extreme northeastern Vietnam, near the Chinese border.

24W full, 18 OCT

Typhoon 25W HAIMA, also named “Lawin” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, continues to strengthen as it tracks generally west-northwestward. Forecasted strength estimates from JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning center) indicate the system may achieve super typhoon status prior to landfall over the northern most tip of Cagayan province on the island of Luzon in the Philippines, with winds near 145kt (269kph). The storm is expected to deal with land interaction from the mountains of northern Luzon during that time, disrupting the circulation a bit, causing the storm to weaken a bit, which will continue as the storm tracks into more hostile atmospheric conditions in the Luzon Strait and northern South China Sea, with a second landfall along the southeastern coast of China as we head into the coming weekend.

25W full, 18 OCT

The remainder of the region will a typical day of scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest activity in western Micronesia, and the least in parts of eastern Micronesia and the Marshall Islands.

Have a tubular Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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