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Daily weather brief – Wednesday, October 19, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 19 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 19 OCT

NORTH

Cooler air continues to filter down into the north region as we charge through early autumn. A stalled frontal system in northern China will undulate for a bit until another stronger surge comes down later this week. Clouds and showers are possible over Japan and parts of eastern China, while the remainder of the region will see comfortable temperatures under partly cloudy skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

6

-3 43 27

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

17

2 63 36

Partly cloudy

Beijing

22

14 72 57

Partly cloudy

Seoul

23

12 73 54

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

23

18 73 64

Mostly cloudy

Xi’an

26

16 79 61

Partly cloudy

Shanghai

23

21 73 70

Scattered showers likely

 

CENTRAL

Southern locales of the central region are dealing with tropical storm 24W SARIKA today, as the system crosses the Gulf of Tonkin and moves into southeast Asia near the Vietnam/china border. Moisture from the storm will stream to the northeast along the baroclinic zone and is deep enough to cause some showers and scattered thunderstorms over southeastern China and Taiwan. The remainder of the region will see plenty of sunshine and warm afternoon temperatures.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

22

11 72 52

Partly cloudy

Hong Kong

28

25 82 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Taipei

31

26 88 79

Scattered showers likely

Naha

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

27

23 81 73

Scattered showers likely

 

SOUTH

All attention is focused on tropical activity in the south region as tropical storm 24W SARIKA moves into northern Vietnam, and super typhoon 25W HAIMA, also named “Lawin” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, bears down on the northern Philippines. As SARIKA is in its death throes, the biggest risk in the region comes with 25W HAIMA, which is expected to make landfall late tonight over northwestern Luzon. For more information of HAIMA, please see the “tropics” section of this report.  Elsewhere across the region, a southwesterly flow associated with SARIKA will bring about a good chance for numerous showers and thunderstorms across Vietnam today, while the remainder of the region will see scattered thunderstorms pop up at the peak of afternoon heating.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

24 91 75

Partly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Davao City

32

25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

32

25 90 77

Mostly cloudy

Singapore

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

Tropical storm 24W SARIKA moves into Southeast Asia today, and super typhoon 25W HAIMA readied for landfall over the northern Philippines late tonight.

TAAG, 19 OCT

TAAG, 19 OCT

Super typhoon 25W HAIMA, also named “Lawin” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, is moving quickly to the west-northwest, with provinces of northeastern and northern Luzon in its sights. The storm is expected to make landfall later tonight over Isabela province as a dangerous category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Numerous storm warnings have been placed by PAGASA and residents there are hunkering down for the worst.

25W RISK, 19 OCT

25W RISK, 19 OCT

As the system crosses the higher terrain of northern Luzon, it will weaken considerably, exiting into the South China Sea as a category 3 storm, but will quickly start to weaken as its circulation will be heavily disrupted by the topography traversed. 25w HAIMA is then expected to recurve around the western periphery of the S.T.R. (Sub-Tropical Ridge) while encountering hostile atmospheric conditions, making a second landfall over southeastern China as a shell off its former self sometime on Friday.

25W full, 19 OCT

25W full, 19 OCT

Tropical storm 24W SARIKA is in its final stages of life, having crossed over the large landmass of Hainan Island yesterday as a poorly-developed category 2 typhoon. SARIKA never quite recovered from its landfall over the Philippines, as is the case for most storms that follow a similar track. SARIKA will make a final landfall somewhere near the Vietnam/China border later today, and dissipate over the mainland within the next couple of days, but will bring very heavy rain, flooding, and the risk of landslides to locales in the mountainous terrain of the country.

24W full, 19 OCT

24W full, 19 OCT

Finally, we are also watching an area of disturbed weather designated 96W INVEST by N.R.L. (Naval research Laboratory) and J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center). This system is very far to the east, over eastern Micronesia, and current computer models do not show development of this system.

96W INVEST, 19 OCT

96W INVEST, 19 OCT

The remainder of the tropical locations will see the usual daily dose of scattered showers and thunderstorms as the warm, tropical moisture gets and added lift from the afternoon sun.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms possible

Yap

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

28

27 82 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

28

22 82 72

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Partly cloudy

Wake

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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