Weekend weather brief – October 22/23, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 22/23 OCT

NORTH

The newest surge of cooler air is making its way across the north region through the weekend. The frontal system associated with the new surge is currently moving through southeastern Russia and the D.P.R.K., extending to the west and south back into central China. This front will press through mainland Asia, and will be passing through Japan and maritime locations early next week. Temperatures are falling significantly behind this system, with single-digit highs forecast for the northerly locales, and teens extending as far south as Korea and central China through the weekend. The Korean peninsula and parts of eastern and central China will see a good deal of cloudiness this weekend, thanks to the front’s interaction with remnants of HAIMA moving to the northwest through the eastern portions of the region. Most other locations will be clearing out nicely through Sunday. Long-range forecasts are hinting at an even stronger Siberian surge to start moving through next week, which could bring significant changes for the entire region.

CENTRAL

The remnants of HAIMA continue to plague parts of the central region this weekend, as the remnant low tracks to the northeast across southeastern China. This system still represents a great risk for flooding rainfall and possible landslides as it moves through the more mountainous terrain of the region. Just about everyone will see a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with locales in the high country of south-central China being spared any inclement weather. Temperatures will be very warm across the region, due to warm air advection ahead of a significant Siberian surge to the north.

SOUTH

Things have quieted down significantly across the south region, as the tropics take a rest. Deep moisture remains over the region, so as always, a good dose of warm afternoon sunshine will lift up that moisture in many spots, generating scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the region.

TROPICS

As the remnants of 25W HAIMA rain themselves out over southeastern China, we find that the tropics have gone silent following a very busy 10-day period which saw two significant tropical cyclones hit the Philippines.

TAAG, 22 OCT

Tropical cyclone “double-taps” are actually quite common in the Philippines, but rarely do we get two storms of this magnitude striking within a week of each other. The east coast of the island of Luzon was hammered through the whole stretch, from the Bicol region, all the way north to Cagayan province in the extreme north. Residents will be happy to know that at this time, there are no other systems forecasted to affect the region for the next 10 days.

Elsewhere across the tropics, scattered pockets of convergence continue to track westward within the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone), bringing a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to most locations within the region.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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