Archive | October 25, 2016

MISLEADING SOCIAL MEDIA MEME USES WEATHER TO VALIDATE POLITICS, DISGUSTING

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I have seen this around and I want to say if you share this MEME for political purposes you are contributing to the un-education of your fellow countryman, regardless of your political view this is a unfair and misleading meme that I personally find disgusting and insults all the hard working people on the ground during these disasters. I am not taking sides by the way in at political debate so please do not comment on this with anything political. Just from a pure science / preparation standpoint. HERE IS SOME MAJOR POINTS!

1. Yolanda’s strength. Yolanda was a much stronger storm by official records, and it wasn’t even close. I’m not sure where they got the 315kph gusts for this post, but there were no measurements of that taken as far as I know. In addition, many agencies actually put Yolanda’s SUSTAINED wind speeds, which is actually how a storm’s strength is measured, near 285kph, with JTWC saying Yolanda was 315kph sustained winds. During Lawin’s peak, no one in official circles was asking if it was as strong as Yolanda. We didn’t have to.

2. Size of a storm does not matter due to what’s being measured compared to what actually affects people. A storm’s “size” as described within, consists of measuring the overall satellite profile, 50% of which is mostly upper-level outflow clouds captured by the camera. The outflow clouds are high in the atmosphere and have no effect on the surface. The core of most tropical cyclones, where at least tropical storm-strength winds take place, is usually only 150-200km across, even in the largest storms. From Wikipedia: “Observations indicate that size is only weakly correlated to variables such as storm intensity (i.e. maximum wind speed), radius of maximum wind, latitude, and maximum potential intensity.”

3.Thirdly, the differences in topography and municipal structure are far different for each scenario, with small town along the thin, rocky coast of Isabela, compared to one large town of 100,000+ people in a sheltered bay with wide waterfront expanses and dense waterfront construction in place.

4. Ultimately, who was president would not have factored into the outcome of either event. Geography and the true magnitude of the storm play a much bigger role.

Finally, just as a side-note, was the meme-maker so lazy that they had to just put the same picture to represent each storm? I mean, at least have the correct pictures of the storms your talking about.

And a last reminder this is not meant to be political. Its just to point out the grotesque misleading of this simple meme and to warn you before sharing that you might be better off trying a different route to share your political opinions. If you want to make a case for how leadership saved lives share information about a new shelter that was built in the last few months, or show examples of disaster response in the hardest hit areas and how leader ship effected it. Which to the credit of the Philippine government has improved since Yolanda, with both administrations, but is still not the ultimate difference in the final casualty toll of these two very different storms.

DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND WINTER LIKE WEATHER IN JAPAN

Some of the coldest temperatures thus far this Autumn are dominating Japan today making for crisp cool conditions. A few locations have actually seen record breaking lows.

 

The most notable being in Hidaka Hokkaido where a all time record low of -6.7 was reported.

low-temps

Mean while in the Tokyo area single digit temperatures were seen around 5AM around the city with the mountains just to the north and west dropping below the freezing point.

 

What is the culprit?

 

A nice blast of cool air out of Siberia with the Siberian high can be blamed. This cooler air mass was triggered some of the left over moisture and a upper level trough with Haima and behind it a nice dose of winter.

 

On of top of that the high ushered in north west winds for Hokkaido triggering some early season “sea effect snowfall” on that island. Heaviest snow totals are now over 20cm on Asahi-Dake that islands highest mountain.

How long will it last?

 

There will be a slight warm up for Japan on Tuesday but the cool temperatures will settle back in after a low over Korea triggering wide spread rain in central Japan before kicking off another cold surge by the weekend. This will continue even into the weekend where the coldest air of the fall should envelope Japan by Sunday in to Monday.

image

Not just for Japan but cool temperatures will dominate much of North East Asia in to the weekend, this is also a set up of a classic cold surge and thus the tropics will likely be calm during this period due to the cold dry air drilling its way south.

 

Interesting how all the weather is connected in this way.

 

 

Daily weather brief – Tuesday, October 25, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 25 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 25 OCT

NORTH

Cooler and drier air continues its assault on the north region, with parts of Mongolia and northern china feeling a lot more like winter. The main push of colder air has pulled up stationary, just south of a line from Mongolia to northern Japan. A ‘door-opening’ push of cooler air is making its way through Korea and eastern China, as another initial push works its way offshore of Japan. Japan will see a good chance rainfall today with snow in the higher elevations, while most of the region will see a mixture of clouds and showers, with Beijing being the lone exception, nestled in-between two storm systems. Temperatures are expected to continue cooling over the next 7 days.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-3

-12 27 10

Snow showers likely

Vladivostok

10

2 50 36

Periods of rain

Beijing

18

9 64 48

Mostly fair

Seoul

18

9 64 48

Periods of rain

Tokyo

19

15 66 59

Mostly cloudy

Xi’an

16

12 61 54

Mostly cloudy

Shanghai

22

19 72 66

Mostly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Today is shaping up to be a pretty nice day across the central region as most of the lingering moisture from the past tropical activity gets drawn into and shuttled away by incoming continental storm systems to the north. Parts of northern Vietnam and southern China will see a decent chance for an afternoon thunderstorm as temperatures remain mild across the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

22

14 72 57

Partly cloudy

Hong Kong

29

26 84 79

Mostly fair

Taipei

32

26 90 79

Mostly fair

Naha

29

26 84 79

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

31

25 88 77

Thunderstorms possible

 

SOUTH

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will fall across most of the south region as deep tropical moisture remains entrenched over the western and southern portion of the region. The northern Philippines will once again see a relatively rain-free day, as high pressure dominates the weather scene over the island of Luzon.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

31

23 88 73

Thunderstorms possible

Ho Chi Minh

30

24 86 75

Thunderstorms possible

Manila

33

26 91 79

Mostly fair

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms possible

Singapore

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

The tropics remain utterly devoid of any significant activity, save for a weak trough in Micronesia and a non-descript area of low pressure lingering near the Malay peninsula.

TAAG, 25 OCT

TAAG, 25 OCT

Most locations across the tropics will see the usual dose of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the deep moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

32

27 90 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

31

26 88 79

Partly cloudy

Palau

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Partly cloudy

Pohnpei

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

Have a tubular Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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