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Archive | October 27, 2016

LONG RANGE TROPICAL POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEK

October 27, 2016 by robertspeta 0 Comments

Tropical season is not over by a long shot in the western pacific. In fact November we on average still see a average number of storms as shown in the graphic below.

With that said the start of November could give us a new named storm system if current model guidance plays out.

A area in the tropics now being reffered to as “invest 97w” is currently sitting just south east of Guam. (See this area on Sat Imagery here.) No other agencies are really paying attention to this right now and to be honest it truly is a weak tropical wave AT THIS POINT. That means there is no official forecast and no need to ask if it will make landfall at a certain point in the western pacific because at this point it is still a invest and still developing.

With that said.. model guidance has been showing development with this area with some of the main super computer outputs displaying a typhoon by next Friday approaching the Philippines. The graphic below is from the 12Z model run showing guidance that is getting our attention. Each of the models are taking in a few different variables including the conditions near its development, moisture, sea surface temperatures and what is ahead of it including the effects of next weeks cold surge ushering in dry air and vertical wind shear. That is why each one is a little different ranging from typhoon to pretty much nothing.

models

Right now nothing more than that.. if the initialization is a little off or if the invest area gets hit hard enough by the incoming cold surge this weekend out of North East Asia this model guidance will change drastically and in the end may not happen at all. I am making this post more or less to educate those of you on model guidance and using it. You can scroll through outputs yourself on this webpage.

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Daily weather brief – Thursday, October 27, 2016

October 27, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 27 OCT

NORTH

A train of cold fronts are crossing the north region as mid-autumn starts to transition to winter in some locations. Very cold air has settled in over Mongolia and northern China, as well as northern third of Japan. Cooler air has moved through the remainder of the region, and the surges are just getting started. Today will be a carbon-copy to yesterday for most locations as north-central and northeast China will see rain as the coldest surge yet pushes through, while lingering moisture keeps things wet and cloudy in eastern China and Korea. The remainder of the region will enjoy a bright sunny day with cool autumn temperatures.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Ulaanbaatar	-4	-16	25	3	Mostly fair
Vladivostok	8	-2	46	28	Mostly fair
Beijing	11	7	52	45	Periods of rain
Seoul	20	12	68	54	Mostly cloudy
Tokyo	21	11	70	52	Mostly fair
Xi’an	12	7	54	45	Scattered showers likely
Shanghai	22	20	72	68	Periods of rain

CENTRAL

Fair and warm weather will dominate the central region, as warm air piles up ahead of a series of cold surges that are forecast to start moving through this weekend. A few thunderstorms are likely in the higher terrain of south-central China, while everyone else enjoys a very warm, mostly cloud-free day.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Kunming	21	14	70	57	Thunderstorms possible
Hong Kong	32	26	90	79	Mostly fair
Taipei	33	25	91	77	Mostly fair
Naha	29	26	84	79	Partly cloudy
Hanoi	32	24	90	75	Partly cloudy

SOUTH

Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms are on tap for much of the south region as tropical moisture remains well in place, and gets a lift from the warm afternoon sun. The northern Philippines will once again see the lowest chances for rainfall as high pressure continues to mostly dominate the local weather scene there.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Siem Reap	32	23	90	73	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Ho Chi Minh	31	24	88	75	Thunderstorms possible
Manila	33	26	91	79	Partly cloudy
Davao City	31	24	88	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei	31	24	88	75	Thunderstorms possible
Singapore	31	24	88	75	Thunderstorms possible

TROPICS

The tropics are still fairly active, although still in a resting stage following the activity of last week.

TAAG, 27 OCT

97W INVEST continues to linger out near eastern Micronesia as it drifts slowly westward along the general flow of the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). Long-range computer models show this system could form into a significant tropical system as we enter November, but current forecasts show no affect to any major land areas. The wildcard with this potential system is a surge of cold air, the first significant surge of the season that will move down into the region as we enter the new month. This will determine a lot in relation to this developing situation. 99W INVEST has been designated in the Marshall Islands but current long-range forecasts show no development of this system.

ALLINVEST, 27 OCT

Elsewhere across the tropics, it will be another Chamber of Commerce type weather day, with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms under bright and warm sunshine, except in eastern Micronesia and the Marshall Islands where 97W and 98W linger and bring an increased opportunity for precipitation.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Guam	32	26	90	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Yap	29	26	84	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Palau	31	26	88	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Chuuk	31	26	88	79	Thunderstorms likely
Pohnpei	30	24	86	75	Thunderstorms likely
Majuro	30	28	86	82	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Wake	30	27	86	81	Partly cloudy

Have a thoughtful Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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