LONG RANGE TROPICAL POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEK

Tropical season is not over by a long shot in the western pacific. In fact November we on average still see a average number of  storms as shown in the graphic below.

 

With that said the start of November could give us a new named storm system if current model guidance plays out.

 

A area in the tropics now being reffered to as “invest 97w” is currently sitting just south east of Guam. (See this area on Sat Imagery here.) No other agencies are really paying attention to this right now and to be honest it truly is a weak tropical wave AT THIS POINT.  That means there is no official forecast and no need to ask if it will make landfall at a certain point in the western pacific because at this point it is still a invest and still developing.

 

With that said.. model guidance has been showing development with this area with some of the main super computer outputs displaying a typhoon by next Friday approaching the Philippines. The graphic below is from the 12Z model run showing guidance that is getting our attention. Each of the models are taking in a few different variables including the conditions near its development, moisture, sea surface temperatures and what is ahead of it including the effects of next weeks cold surge ushering in dry air and vertical wind shear. That is why each one is a little different ranging from typhoon to pretty much nothing.

models

Right now nothing more than that.. if the initialization is a little off or if the invest area gets hit hard enough by the incoming cold surge this weekend out of North East Asia this model guidance will change drastically and in the end may not happen at all.  I am making this post more or less to educate those of you on model guidance and using it. You can scroll through outputs yourself on this webpage.

 

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