Daily weather brief – Friday, October 28, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 28 OCT

NORTH

High pressure is building into the north region behind a strong push of colder air from the northwest. Mongolia and parts of northern China are in the deep freeze as temperatures remain below freezing. Colder air is spreading east and south as well, with all locations within the region in the teens (50’s-60’s F), with the coldest air still in the farthest northerly locations. Skies will be cloudy from central China into Japan, where a good deal of rain will fall along the initial push of cold air, where a stalled frontal system undulates over the southern third of the archipelago.

CENTRAL

Warm air advection is taking place over the central region, where temperatures are warming up ahead of a surge of cooler air coming down this weekend. Most locations will see a sunny to partly cloudy day, with some thunderstorms popping up over the higher terrain of south-central China.

SOUTH

The south region will see another typical day of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over most locations, except for the northern Philippines, where a ridge of high pressure continues to stretch down into Luzon and keep things mostly dry. Temperatures will be seasonably warm across the region, with slightly lower readings where the rainfall is greatest.

TROPICS

All eyes are trained on 97W INVEST as long-range forecast models show something possibly developing out of this blob of clouds in the first week of November.

TAAG, 28 OCT

97W INVEST continues to slide slowly westward in the general flow of the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). The system is currently flowing through eastern Micronesia and is expected to become a significant tropical cyclone by next week. Although it’s still early, all interests in the western pacific should monitor this system for further development. 99W INVEST is located to the east of 97W, and is also drifting along in the general flow. Computer forecast models are showing some development, but with a track that will take it northwest, and to the north, before getting caught up in the baroclinic zone northwest of Wake island and heading out to sea.

ALLINVEST, 28 OCT

The remainder of the tropics will see the usual daily dose of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with Palau and Wake Island getting a break, and Pohnpei seeing mostly cloudy skies.

Have a fruitful Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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