Weekend weather brief – October 29/30, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 29/30 OCT

NORTH

Winter’s icy grip is locked in over Mongolia and northern China as a new cold surge settles into the north region. Temperatures will remain in a deep-freeze across the northernmost locales of the region as high pressure builds in from the northwest. While the initial surge makes its way out of the picture to the east, the latest, and strongest, Siberian surge will continue to push through the region this weekend, bringing temperatures down across the entirety of the region. Looking ahead, it appears this fall weather will stay in place with little rebound in temperatures across most locations heading into next week.

CENTRAL

The newest Siberian surge will make its way down into the central region from the north next week, and the initial cooling push has settled in as well, so this weekend will be considerably cooler than last. Some showers will linger across Taiwan, and back through south-central and southeastern China and northern Vietnam as the leftover trough form the last surge’s front washes out over the area. The remainder of the region will see a pleasant weekend ahead.

 SOUTH

The south region will stay muggy as Indochina, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and northern Indonesia stay locked into the deep moisture. A tongue of high pressure from the ridge to the north continues to extend down into the northern Philippines, bringing drier conditions with the northeast monsoon. Temperatures will be comfortably warm across the region with numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout.

TROPICS

The tropics are heating up a bit, as long-range forecast models wrestle on solutions, and remain fairly consistent is saying something will form in the next 5-7 days.

TAAG, 29 OCT

Currently we have 99W INVEST far to the east in the Marshall Islands. This system is not expected to become much, and the dominant steering mechanism for this system is rooted to the east, so it is expected to follow a more northerly track around the western periphery of that steering STR, and get caught up into the dominant baroclinic zone near 30N latitude in the coming days. We also have 90W INVEST, which was re-designated from what was 97W INVEST, east of Guam. We’re not sure why 97 went *poof*, but this is the system that forecast models are having a hard time figuring out, both in terms of strength, and movement. Much of that has to do with the hostile atmospheric conditions it is currently undergoing, followed by an incoming continental surge that is expected to arrive at about the same time the steering currents get the storm about 1500km east of the Philippines. Much remains to be seen with this system, and we will be watching it very carefully.

ALLINVEST, 29 OCT

Elsewhere across the tropics, warm and muggy weather will be on the menu, with everyone expecting a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with eastern Micronesia getting a break in the moisture under partly cloudy skies.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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