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Daily weather brief – Monday, October 31, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 31 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 31 OCT

NORTH

The newest surge of cooler air is rolling through the Asian continent, as wintry conditions sweep to the east along with the primary energy source for the system. The cold front associated with the surge is draped over a large area, extending to the southwest from northern Japan, along the archipelago, and then westward into eastern and central China where the tail end stalls out. Cold temperatures remain locked in over Mongolia, and northern china, while southeastern Russia looks forward to a significant cool down as well. High elevation show has been falling across Hokkaido in Japan, and this will extend southward into higher climes of Honshu over the next 24 hours. Temperatures behind the front are considerably colder, and the cooler air mass looks to stay in place ahead of an even stronger surge next weekend.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-4

-15 25 5

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

0

-7 32 19

Partly cloudy

Beijing

6

-3 43 27

Mostly fair

Seoul

8

-3 46 27

Mostly cloudy

Tokyo

19

13 66 55

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

15

5 59 41

Mostly fair

Shanghai

17

13 63 55

Periods of rain

 

CENTRAL

Cooler air has also settled into much of the central region as we start the new work week. Temperatures are slightly cooler than this time last week, but the coldest air looks to stay to the north until the next strong surge makes its way down at the end of the week. Clouds and scattered showers will linger over Taiwan due to the strong NE’ly flow, and the leading edge of the first surge, which has lost most of its punch, is still creating a sharp contrast in the air masses as the tail end hangs around northern Indochina. Temperatures will be comfortably mild across the region, with most locations enjoying partly cloudy skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

17

11 63 52

Thunderstorms possible

Hong Kong

28

20 82 68

Mostly fair

Taipei

26

22 79 72

Scattered showers likely

Naha

28

24 82 75

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

24

20 75 68

Scattered showers likely

 

SOUTH

The leading edge of the first surge has settled in over portions of the northern Philippines, clearing skies and bringing fresh northeasterly winds to northern Luzon. The boundary is draped over the southern part of the island, and marks a clear boundary between the moisture of the tropics, and the influx of drier air to the north. Most of the region remains under a very warm and moist air mass, so scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely for these locations. All interests in the south are watching the tropics closely as a trio of systems try to get organized, with at least two of them likely to affect the region in the next 7 days.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

23 90 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Ho Chi Minh

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Manila

33

26 91 79

Partly cloudy

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

29

24 84 75

Thunderstorms likely

Singapore

31

25 88 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

We have 3 different areas of investigation out in the tropics, with most computer forecast models in wide disagreement on the final solution of the complicated situation out in the region.

TAAG, 31 OCT

TAAG, 31 OCT

99W INVEST continues to move slowly to the west-northwest as it maintains its relatively weak structure. This system is not expected to impact any major land masses during its life cycle, which will likely take it to the north and northeast in the coming days. 90W INVEST, formerly 97W, continues to hold together southeast of Guam as it moves slowly westward. Having dealt with a hostile developmental environment over the weekend, the system continues to find itself in fairly marginal atmospheric conditions, so any development with this system will be slow. A new area to watch, 91W INVEST, has been designated just east of the southern Philippines. This system is actually the western terminus of a large trough that includes 90W on its eastern end. Some models are suggesting a slow strengthening prior to moving over the southern Philippines, with a more pronounced growth scenario once it reaches the South China Sea later this week.

INVEST full, 31 OCT

INVEST full, 31 OCT

Elsewhere across the region, it’s just another day of warm afternoon temperatures and numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Palau

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms likely

Wake

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

Have a meaningful Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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