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TROPICS START UP HEADING IN TO NOVEMBER

Things have been relatively calm through the end of October but that may change starting off November as we look at our potential next named storm system in the western pacific.

td

Now a Tropical Depression or known as “invest 90w” by NOAA this area of convection swirling near Guam has been raising eye brows for about a week now due to most global models persistence on developing this in to a named storm system and possibly a typhoon.

 

ENSEMBLE, Center line only on LPA, not intensity

ENSEMBLE, Center line only on LPA, not intensity

What do the models say today on November 1st?

 

Well, despite guidance only being about 72hr-96hr out the outputs from the super computers couldn’t be any more separated, some develop a typhoon others a weak low, most show re-curvature but our most dependable typhoon model the GFS continues to indicate a land falling storm in the Philippines later this week.

 

Another big thing throwing a curveball at the models is the location of multiple low pressure areas in the Philippine sea, these are interacting with each other along with the incoming cold surge.

 

Mean Wind Anlaysis

Mean Wind Anlaysis

My analysis

 

If our low develops north of 10N there is a better chance of it being picked up by the next passing trough out of the westerlies which is diving rather far south and pull it North East.

 

Yet if the Tropical Depression develops at 10N or south and manages to make it withstand the shear and pull of the trough it could drift west heading in to the weekend. I am in line with this idea but to a extent. I feel like the passing trough and shear will weaken the TD or keep it weak enough where we will not see a landfalling typhoon, but a big rain maker possibly over the upcoming weekend in the central Philippines.

 

These are my thoughts though and there is no official forecast released yet by any agency. We still have days in fact before anything really transpires in the tropics.

 

For now though those in Visayas should at the very least double check to make sure storm supplies are in order, if one hits or does not hit you will be happy you did.  Next update will be Wednesday, also be sure to check Michaels daily weather update for a  general overview of the weather in the Western Pacific.

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