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Daily weather brief – Tuesday, November 29, 2016

November 29, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 29 NOV

NORTH

The cold, wintry air mass stays locked in over portions of the north region today as temperatures struggle to get into the teens over southern and eastern locales, and stay well below zero far to the north. A weak impulse of energy will bring low clouds and foggy conditions to eastern China as the warmer air from the south rides over the cooler surface layer. Haze and smoke will be an issue across Mongolia as high pressure overhead creates a bit of a stagnation problem. The remainder of the region should see a rather nice, albeit chilly, day ahead.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Ulaanbaatar	-9	-20	16	-4	Partly cloudy with haze
Vladivostok	-6	-13	21	9	Mostly fair
Beijing	4	-3	39	27	Mostly cloudy
Seoul	7	-2	45	28	Mostly fair
Tokyo	13	3	55	37	Partly cloudy
Xi’an	12	0	54	32	Fog and low clouds
Shanghai	13	10	55	50	Mostly cloudy

CENTRAL

Temperatures are rebounding a bit across the central region as the high pressure system responsible for the attest Siberian surges tracks mostly eastward. A few showers will fall over the higher terrain of south-central China and across Taiwan as the strong northeasterly flow rolls the moisture up the mountains, squeezing out a few showers. Skies will be partly cloudy across Okinawa, and over southern China and northern Indochina, while temperatures will settle in at comfortably warm autumn levels over much of the region.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Kunming	12	6	54	43	Scattered showers likely
Hong Kong	23	17	73	61	Partly cloudy
Taipei	23	19	73	66	Scattered showers likely
Naha	22	21	72	70	Partly cloudy
Hanoi	25	16	77	61	Partly cloudy

SOUTH

A new surge from the north has infiltrated much of the south region, with high pressure building in behind a strong northeasterly flow over portions of northern Indochina and the northern Philippines. Locations to the south will see another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the drier air fails to make its way to those locales. Temperatures will be very warm across much of the region, especially over southern Indochina where warm air advecting northward ahead the newest surge will heat things up a bit.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Siem Reap	32	22	90	72	Mostly fair
Ho Chi Minh	34	25	93	77	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Manila	31	25	88	77	Mostly fair
Davao City	30	24	86	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei	32	24	90	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Singapore	31	24	88	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible

TROPICS

The tropics have quieted down significantly following the demise of tropical storm TOKAGE, and due to drier filtering into the region from the north.

TAAG, 29 NOV

The remnants of TOKAGE, although hard to spot, continue to push slowly to the southwest over the South China Sea. A new surge of cooler air from the north will dry out the western tropics, while a recent northerly surge has cleared things out quite nicely over eastern and northern portions of the region. Long-range computer models are showing no development of any significant tropical systems for the foreseeable future. Over all, scattered pockets of instability will combine with the available moisture and warm sunshine to generate a few scattered thunderstorms in spots, especially over western Micronesia.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Guam	31	27	88	81	Mostly fair
Yap	31	26	88	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Palau	31	27	88	81	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Chuuk	32	27	90	81	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Pohnpei	31	26	88	79	Partly cloudy
Majuro	29	27	84	81	Thunderstorms possible
Wake	29	26	84	79	Partly cloudy

Have a tubular Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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Daily weather brief – Monday, November 28, 2016

November 28, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 28 NOV

NORTH

Cold air remains in place over the north region as the transition from autumn to winter continues. The leading edge of the cold air mass has swept over Japan, and is moving to the east, bringing clear to partly cloudy skies across much of the region. The exceptions would be central China, where a weak disturbance is sliding through, bringing cloudy conditions, and also in eastern china, where low clouds and fog will make for a rather dreary day. Temperatures will once again range from below zero in the northernmost locales, to the low and middle teens to the south and east.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Ulaanbaatar	-9	-18	16	0	Mostly fair
Vladivostok	-4	-10	25	14	Mostly fair
Beijing	8	-3	46	27	Mostly fair
Seoul	4	-4	39	25	Mostly fair
Tokyo	14	7	57	45	Mostly fair
Xi’an	11	3	52	37	Mostly cloudy
Shanghai	13	8	55	46	Fog and low clouds

CENTRAL

Temperatures remain comfortably mild across the central region as the latest surge from the north slide well to the south of the region. Scattered showers are possible over the high country of southern China as moisture gets pumped in from the west along the jet stream, and also over Taiwan, as the strong northeasterly flow drags moisture up the higher terrain. The remainder of the region will see plenty of sunshine and just a few scattered clouds here and there.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Kunming	14	8	57	46	Scattered showers likely
Hong Kong	21	16	70	61	Mostly fair
Taipei	20	18	68	64	Scattered showers likely
Naha	22	19	72	66	Partly cloudy
Hanoi	25	15	77	59	Mostly fair

SOUTH

Conditions are considerably drier across Indochina today as the latest surge brings in a strong northeasterly flow across the peninsula. Portions of northwestern Philippines will see a chance of rain as the system formerly known as tropical storm TOKAGE gets torn apart by the incoming surge. Locations to the south can also expect a good chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the air mass remains moist and the sun continues to heat up the midday.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Siem Reap	31	20	88	68	Partly cloudy
Ho Chi Minh	33	24	91	75	Partly cloudy
Manila	31	25	88	77	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Davao City	32	24	90	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei	32	24	90	75	Partly cloudy
Singapore	30	24	86	75	Thunderstorms possible

TROPICS

The remnants of tropical storm TOKAGE continue to unravel northwest of the Philippines while the remainder of the region sees activity wane a bit.

TAAG, 28 NOV

J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) has downgraded tropical storm TOKAGE, also named “Marce” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, to tropical depression status as the system encounters very hostile conditions care of a strong northerly surge coming in. V.W.S. (Vertical Wind Shear) has increased to above 25 knots over the system, and has literally sheared off the heaviest convection far to the northeast, leaving the L.L.C.C. (Low-Level Circulation Center) a bit exposed. To make matters worse for the system, the circulation is dragging in very dry air from the north, compliments of the prevailing surge moving southward into the area. Forecasts continue to show the system weakening, with the weak, remnant low being pushed to the west-southwest over the next 24 hours by the strong flow of the Siberian surge, with complete dissipation expected within the next 48 hours.

29W full, 28 NOV

Elsewhere across the tropics, a long trough of convergence extends through much of Micronesia, which will help fire off some scattered showers and thunderstorms across most locations in the Federated States, while far to the east, drier air has moved in, and taken rain chances out of the forecast for today.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Guam	31	27	88	81	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Yap	31	26	88	79	Mostly cloudy
Palau	31	27	88	81	Thunderstorms possible
Chuuk	31	27	88	81	Thunderstorms possible
Pohnpei	31	25	88	77	Thunderstorms possible
Majuro	30	27	86	81	Partly cloudy
Wake	29	26	84	79	Partly cloudy

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

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DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

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Tokage Weakens After Wind Shear Tears It Apart

November 28, 2016 by robertspeta 0 Comments

Tokage has lost its TS intensity this Monday after much of the convection in the storm being blown to the North East Away from the center of circulation.

tropical

In fact on Satellite imagery the shear on the storm is so strong it looks like Tokage is moving over Luzon but in fact the low level center is tracking west in to the south china sea. Being exposed due to the wind shear and ever increasing dry air do not expect much more out of Tokage.

Even the chance of it somehow re-generating is low, we will still watch it over the coming days but overall it seems it will continue to weaken. Do not be a boater venturing through the storms center just yet though, satellite derived winds show sustained well over 50kts still visible in Tokage’s center.

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Weekend weather brief – November 26/27, 2016

November 26, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 26/27 NOV

NORTH

A reinforcing shot of cooler air will slide through the north region this weekend, bringing clouds and showers to much of the region, with snow showers to northern locales. The weekend will be split, as most locations see one dry day, and one wet day, as we work through the weekend. Wintry precipitation will affect portions of northern china, southeastern Russia, and the Korean peninsula, while the remainder of the region’s precipitation will be in the form of rainfall. Temperatures will hold steady through the region, with slight moderation taking place, with northernmost locations seeing below zero readings, and locations to the south and east seeing readings get into the lower teens.

City	Sat High C F		Sun High C F		Conditions Sat Sun
Ulaanbaatar	-13	9	-9	16	Mostly fair	Mostly fair
Vladivostok	1	34	3	37	Snow showers	Partly cloudy
Beijing	8	46	7	45	Partly cloudy	Mostly fair
Seoul	4	39	9	48	Snow showers	Partly cloudy
Tokyo	13	55	12	54	Mostly cloudy	Sctd. showers
Xi’an	12	54	12	54	Mostly fair	Mostly fair
Shanghai	10	50	13	55	Periods of rain	Mostly fair

CENTRAL

The most recent surge of Siberian air is still pushing slowly through the central region, and with it comes plenty of cloud-cover and moisture to deal with. Only the most southerly locations will escape the inclement weather as rain falls across much of the region through the weekend. Temperatures are warming up a bit ahead of the surge, as warmer air advects northward in advance of the cold front sweeping slowly to the southeast.

City	Sat High C F		Sun High C F		Conditions Sat Sun
Kunming	13	55	18	64	Periods of rain	Mostly fair
Hong Kong	18	64	19	66	Periods of rain	Mostly cloudy
Taipei	28	82	19	66	Periods of rain	Periods of rain
Naha	25	77	24	75	Mostly cloudy	Periods of rain
Hanoi	22	72	24	75	Partly cloudy	Mostly fair

SOUTH

The main story in the south region is tropical storm 1625/29W TOKAGE, also named “Marce” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, as it makes its way into the South China Sea. The storm moved through the Philippines over the past 48 hours, bringing heavy rain and flooding, and some gusty winds at times, as well as isolated reports of landslides. As the storm continues to move out to sea, effects will be felt less across the archipelago, with portions of Luzon still seeing a chance for showers through the weekend. For more information on this system, please see the “tropics” section of this report. Elsewhere, it will be a mixed bag of weather, as weak high pressure keeps widespread rainfall out of the picture, especially over Indochina. Locations to the south and east could still see a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Temperatures will be seasonably hot, with slightly warmer readings over Indochina as warmer air advects northward ahead of a strong Siberian surge to the north.

City	Sat High C F		Sun High C F		Conditions Sat Sun
Siem Reap	32	90	31	88	Sctd. t-storms	Partly cloudy
Ho Chi Minh	33	91	34	93	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy
Manila	29	84	30	86	Sctd. t-storms	Sctd. t-storms
Davao City	31	88	32	90	Sctd. t-storms	Partly cloudy
Brunei	31	88	31	88	Sctd. t-storms	Thunderstorms
Singapore	31	88	31	88	Thunderstorms	Thunderstorms

TROPICS

Only one system to deal with in the tropics as a surge moves into eastern portions of the region, drying things out a bit.

TAAG, 26 NOV

Tropical storm 1625/29W TOKAGE, also named “Marce” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, has finished its trek across the Philippines archipelago as it moves deeper into the South China Sea. This system is expected to continue to slowly strengthen over the warm waters west of the Philippines as it tracks slowly to the north-northwest, reaching Severe Tropical Storm status early Monday, before a northerly surge moves in and basically punches it in the throat with cool, drier air and increased V.W.S. (Vertical Wind Shear), bringing the system to its knees as the surge pushes it westward during its last dying swirls.

29W full, 26 NOV

The northernmost locations within the tropics are seeing the benefits of drier air to the north filtering down into these locales, while locations to the south will see another typical round of weather as the warm afternoon sunshine helps lift up the available moisture into showers and scattered thunderstorms.

City	Sat High C F		Sun High C F		Conditions Sat Sun
Guam	31	88	31	88	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy
Yap	29	84	29	84	Sctd. t-storms	Thunderstorms
Palau	29	84	29	84	Sctd. t-storms	Sctd. t-storms
Chuuk	30	86	31	88	Sctd. t-storms	Mostly cloudy
Pohnpei	31	88	29	84	Mostly cloudy	Sctd. t-storms
Majuro	29	84	29	84	Mostly cloudy	Partly cloudy
Wake	29	84	29	84	Sctd. showers	Mostly fair

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

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