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Daily weather brief – Tuesday, November 1, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 01 NOV

NWPAC outlook, 01 NOV

NORTH

Cold air continues to settle in over much of the north region, as the latest push loses some punch over the continent, migrating mostly eastward today. Mongolia and northern china are still quite cold today, with the coldest air extending to the south and east as far as the Korean peninsula. Areas to the south and west of this strong surge are cool, but are not seeing the frigid conditions of the aforementioned areas. Parts of Japan will see some rainfall today, with high elevation snow, as the new surge pushes through, while continental Asia will see a nice day with just a few scattered clouds.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-2

-14 28 7

Partly cloudy

Vladivostok

2

-7 36 19

Mostly fair

Beijing

8

-2 46 28

Mostly fair

Seoul

7

-2 45 28

Mostly fair

Tokyo

16

11 61 52

Periods of rain

Xi’an

14

4 57 39

Partly cloudy

Shanghai

16

9 61 48

Mostly fair

 

CENTRAL

Temperatures across the central region are holding steady as cooler air maintains a grip across the region. A new, weak surge of Siberian air is filtering through the region, reinforcing the earlier push of cool air that came through over the weekend. Rainfall will be plentiful in the high country of south-central China, with clouds extending south into northern Indochina. Rainfall will also be on tap for Taiwan, as the latest frontal system stalls out overhead.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

16

12 61 54

Periods of rain

Hong Kong

27

19 81 66

Partly cloudy

Taipei

23

19 73 66

Periods of rain

Naha

27

21 81 70

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

24

19 75 66

Mostly cloudy

 

SOUTH

The cold surge boundary that pushed as far south as southern Luzon has started retreating ahead of the next surge coming down. This has allowed moisture from a developing tropical disturbance, 91W, to move into parts of the northern Philippines where the weather had been rather stable for the past couple of days. Deep moisture remains over the remainder of the region as well, and will likely develop into showers and thunderstorms this afternoon at the peak of daytime heating. Interests in the Philippines are watching the developments in the tropics very closely, which we will cover more in-depth in the ‘tropics’ section below.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

23 90 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Ho Chi Minh

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Manila

31

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

30

24 86 75

Thunderstorms likely

Singapore

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

TAAG, 01 NOV

TAAG, 01 NOV

Mystery continues to abound in the tropics as three designated systems jostle about in the region, unsure of where to go or what to do. Just when we thought the scenario couldn’t get more complicated, it does. As many of you know, we now have three identified disturbances in the tropics, 99W, 90W, and 91W. 99W is doing what they said it would do, and although it looks impressive, it is coming nowhere near any populated landmasses. 90W has been giving us fits. For several runs, the computer forecast models have been showing a wide variety of solutions. One (GFS) had 90W moving into the PHL, while the other 5 models have been showing a plethora of solutions, including dissipation and re-curvature. This morning is no different, as the solutions are still not quite in agreement with what will happen to 90W. What they do agree on is that 91W will make a difference. 91W is just SW of Palau in Micronesia, east of the PHL. It popped up out of nowhere yesterday, and now some of the models are being aggressive with this system in terms of formation and movement. It’s still unclear what the final solution will be, but since this system is MUCH closer to a major landmass, we need to be vigilant in watching this one. Final verdict: We still are a bit unsure what is going to happen. It looks like something will form out of either 90W or 91W, but what will happen is still a guess. I would say that residents of the Philippines, from Visayas to eastern Luzon, should be checking the site from time to time to see any updates that we have.

INVEST full, 01 NOV

INVEST full, 01 NOV

Elsewhere across the region, abundant moisture will combine with the heating of the warm sun to generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Yap

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Palau

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

30

24 86 75

Thunderstorms likely

Majuro

30

28 86 82

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Wake

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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