Daily weather brief – Tuesday, November 1, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 01 NOV

NORTH

Cold air continues to settle in over much of the north region, as the latest push loses some punch over the continent, migrating mostly eastward today. Mongolia and northern china are still quite cold today, with the coldest air extending to the south and east as far as the Korean peninsula. Areas to the south and west of this strong surge are cool, but are not seeing the frigid conditions of the aforementioned areas. Parts of Japan will see some rainfall today, with high elevation snow, as the new surge pushes through, while continental Asia will see a nice day with just a few scattered clouds.

CENTRAL

Temperatures across the central region are holding steady as cooler air maintains a grip across the region. A new, weak surge of Siberian air is filtering through the region, reinforcing the earlier push of cool air that came through over the weekend. Rainfall will be plentiful in the high country of south-central China, with clouds extending south into northern Indochina. Rainfall will also be on tap for Taiwan, as the latest frontal system stalls out overhead.

SOUTH

The cold surge boundary that pushed as far south as southern Luzon has started retreating ahead of the next surge coming down. This has allowed moisture from a developing tropical disturbance, 91W, to move into parts of the northern Philippines where the weather had been rather stable for the past couple of days. Deep moisture remains over the remainder of the region as well, and will likely develop into showers and thunderstorms this afternoon at the peak of daytime heating. Interests in the Philippines are watching the developments in the tropics very closely, which we will cover more in-depth in the ‘tropics’ section below.

TROPICS

TAAG, 01 NOV

Mystery continues to abound in the tropics as three designated systems jostle about in the region, unsure of where to go or what to do. Just when we thought the scenario couldn’t get more complicated, it does. As many of you know, we now have three identified disturbances in the tropics, 99W, 90W, and 91W. 99W is doing what they said it would do, and although it looks impressive, it is coming nowhere near any populated landmasses. 90W has been giving us fits. For several runs, the computer forecast models have been showing a wide variety of solutions. One (GFS) had 90W moving into the PHL, while the other 5 models have been showing a plethora of solutions, including dissipation and re-curvature. This morning is no different, as the solutions are still not quite in agreement with what will happen to 90W. What they do agree on is that 91W will make a difference. 91W is just SW of Palau in Micronesia, east of the PHL. It popped up out of nowhere yesterday, and now some of the models are being aggressive with this system in terms of formation and movement. It’s still unclear what the final solution will be, but since this system is MUCH closer to a major landmass, we need to be vigilant in watching this one. Final verdict: We still are a bit unsure what is going to happen. It looks like something will form out of either 90W or 91W, but what will happen is still a guess. I would say that residents of the Philippines, from Visayas to eastern Luzon, should be checking the site from time to time to see any updates that we have.

INVEST full, 01 NOV

Elsewhere across the region, abundant moisture will combine with the heating of the warm sun to generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com