Archive | November 2, 2016

COULD A NEW TD BE THE NEXT TYPHOON IN THE PHILIPPINES? MAYBE….

The tropics this Thursday are looking more and more decidedly active this week with two tropical depressions stirring up the ocean to the east of the Philippines.

Both of these areas are interesting to watch this coming week one specifically shows at least the potential of becoming a typhoon over the coming weekend. But before I get more in to this post I do want to note right now there are so many factors at play and the TD we all have our eyes on could become nothing or something dangerous. AS JTWC stated in their prognostic reasoning this morning “IN VIEW OF THE WIDE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST”

 

JTWC FORECAST

This in short means the forecast can change, so take the graphic below from JTWC with a grain of salt at least for now.

 

Why is there such a disagreement in the models?

 

  • For starters there are two Tropical Depressions so close to each other, both are playing in on each others motions which always adds a extra factor in to storm tracking.
  • Cold Surge and North East Monsoon , one would thing that cool air out of Siberia would not have much effect on a tropical storm near 10N. But it does immensely, if this cold surge now rolling through the east china sea and giving Okinawa some exceptionally cool temperatures grabs our tropical depressions hard enough it will likely pull them north west. The NAVGEM weather model favors this outcome in fact.
  • Yet If it does not and the ridge north of the TD stays in place then the Tropical depression could slowly track west.
  • Long range facts : If it does track west slowly it could move in to a area of favorable development and thus intensifying quickly via the Philippine sea effect over the coming weekend. GFS and the HWRF favor this option, plus show a storm coming on shore in Visayas and southern Luzon. A location much more vulnerable than Cagayan further north where we seen Lawin come on shore.

td

Best and Worst Case Scenario

 

This is going to sound like a weatherman wishy washy forecast, but there is a decent chance the best case scenario could occur taking the TD east out to sea and quickly weakening,

 

The worst case though would be a westward drifting storm and intensifying. More and more this scenario seems to be coming more possible and as I stated in the last post way back on Monday is if you are along the Philippine coast watch and be ready for a potential storm.

 

MODEL OUTLOOK A WEEK AGO FOR TODAY, NOTHING LIKE IT ACTUALLY IS

MODEL OUTLOOK A WEEK AGO FOR TODAY, NOTHING LIKE IT ACTUALLY IS

If you remember back a week ago models all shown November 4th (today) we would have a typhoon near visayas, and now we do not.. this is why we always say continue to check in with updated forecast and how all these factors really do play in to model outlooks, that is why you need people who know how to analyze forecast and know how accurate they may or may not be, not just people who look at the GFS and say “THIS WILL BE IT IN 2 WEEKS!!”

Daily weather brief – Wednesday, November 2, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 02 NOV

NWPAC outlook, 02 NOV

NORTH

Temperatures are slowly rebounding across the north region, but very cold conditions remain over the northernmost locales of the region as high pressure stays locked in. A pulse of energy will slide across Korea and Japan today, generating clouds and showers for those countries, while everyone else should see a day of fair weather with cool autumn temperatures.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

2

-9 36 16

Partly cloudy

Vladivostok

4

-4 39 25

Mostly fair

Beijing

12

-1 54 30

Mostly fair

Seoul

11

3 52 37

Scattered showers likely

Tokyo

13

9 55 48

Mostly cloudy

Xi’an

18

5 64 41

Mostly fair

Shanghai

16

9 61 48

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Temperatures across the central region have cooled slightly or have held steady, as another surge of Siberian air filters through the region. Lingering moisture will help keep skies cloudy over northern Indochina and fuel a few showers over the high country of south-central China. Taiwan will also see some showers today as the moist flow from the northeast dominates the island.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

14

11 57 52

Scattered showers likely

Hong Kong

26

18 79 64

Mostly fair

Taipei

22

19 72 66

Scattered showers likely

Naha

24

22 75 72

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

27

20 81 68

Mostly cloudy

 

SOUTH

Deep moisture remains over much of the south region as the continental surges stall out over the South China Sea and the northern Philippines. A developing tropical system east of the Philippines has residents a bit nervous as the scenario plays out. Most locations will see a good chance for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today as temperatures remain warm over most of the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

23 90 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Ho Chi Minh

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Manila

32

26 90 79

Partly cloudy

Davao City

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms likely

Brunei

29

24 84 75

Thunderstorms likely

Singapore

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

As the tropical weather scenario continues to play out, we find ourselves with two tropical depressions, and one weak disturbance that is probably going to go away soon.

TAAG, 02 NOV

TAAG, 02 NOV

TD99W INVEST, declared a tropical depression by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) yesterday, has also had a T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) issued on it by the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) as it moves slowly to the west-northwest. The system is currently located just east of the Mariana Islands, and is expected to pass through the island chain as it slowly strengthens and begins to turn more poleward in the coming 48 hours.

99W INVEST full, 02 NOV

99W INVEST full, 02 NOV

TD90W INVEST, also designated as a tropical depression by J.M.A. appears to be the dominant system out of the pair which includes 91W INVEST. Right now, a large monsoonal trough has formed, allowing moisture from 91W to be entrained into 90W, which we believe will result in absorption of the weaker 91W by TD90W in the next 24 hours. Computer forecast models are still all over the place with this system, with GFS and CMC showing a Philippines landfall scenario, while ECMWF shows the system being swept off to the northeast by the incoming continental surge. Much is still uncertain about this system, so it bears very close observance over the next few days.

90W INVEST full, 02 NOV

90W INVEST full, 02 NOV

As mentioned previously, 91W INVEST is losing its punch as it get absorbed by TD90W, and should be taken off the books by this time tomorrow.

91W INVEST, 02 NOV

91W INVEST, 02 NOV

Elsewhere across the tropics, plentiful moisture and warm sunshine will team up to help generate showers and thunderstorms across much of the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Palau

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

30

25 86 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Majuro

31

27 88 81

Partly cloudy

Wake

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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