The tropics this Thursday are looking more and more decidedly active this week with two tropical depressions stirring up the ocean to the east of the Philippines.
Both of these areas are interesting to watch this coming week one specifically shows at least the potential of becoming a typhoon over the coming weekend. But before I get more in to this post I do want to note right now there are so many factors at play and the TD we all have our eyes on could become nothing or something dangerous. AS JTWC stated in their prognostic reasoning this morning “IN VIEW OF THE WIDE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST”
This in short means the forecast can change, so take the graphic below from JTWC with a grain of salt at least for now.
Why is there such a disagreement in the models?
- For starters there are two Tropical Depressions so close to each other, both are playing in on each others motions which always adds a extra factor in to storm tracking.
- Cold Surge and North East Monsoon , one would thing that cool air out of Siberia would not have much effect on a tropical storm near 10N. But it does immensely, if this cold surge now rolling through the east china sea and giving Okinawa some exceptionally cool temperatures grabs our tropical depressions hard enough it will likely pull them north west. The NAVGEM weather model favors this outcome in fact.
- Yet If it does not and the ridge north of the TD stays in place then the Tropical depression could slowly track west.
- Long range facts : If it does track west slowly it could move in to a area of favorable development and thus intensifying quickly via the Philippine sea effect over the coming weekend. GFS and the HWRF favor this option, plus show a storm coming on shore in Visayas and southern Luzon. A location much more vulnerable than Cagayan further north where we seen Lawin come on shore.
Best and Worst Case Scenario
This is going to sound like a weatherman wishy washy forecast, but there is a decent chance the best case scenario could occur taking the TD east out to sea and quickly weakening,
The worst case though would be a westward drifting storm and intensifying. More and more this scenario seems to be coming more possible and as I stated in the last post way back on Monday is if you are along the Philippine coast watch and be ready for a potential storm.
If you remember back a week ago models all shown November 4th (today) we would have a typhoon near visayas, and now we do not.. this is why we always say continue to check in with updated forecast and how all these factors really do play in to model outlooks, that is why you need people who know how to analyze forecast and know how accurate they may or may not be, not just people who look at the GFS and say “THIS WILL BE IT IN 2 WEEKS!!”