Daily weather brief – Wednesday, November 2, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 02 NOV

NORTH

Temperatures are slowly rebounding across the north region, but very cold conditions remain over the northernmost locales of the region as high pressure stays locked in. A pulse of energy will slide across Korea and Japan today, generating clouds and showers for those countries, while everyone else should see a day of fair weather with cool autumn temperatures.

CENTRAL

Temperatures across the central region have cooled slightly or have held steady, as another surge of Siberian air filters through the region. Lingering moisture will help keep skies cloudy over northern Indochina and fuel a few showers over the high country of south-central China. Taiwan will also see some showers today as the moist flow from the northeast dominates the island.

SOUTH

Deep moisture remains over much of the south region as the continental surges stall out over the South China Sea and the northern Philippines. A developing tropical system east of the Philippines has residents a bit nervous as the scenario plays out. Most locations will see a good chance for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today as temperatures remain warm over most of the region.

TROPICS

As the tropical weather scenario continues to play out, we find ourselves with two tropical depressions, and one weak disturbance that is probably going to go away soon.

TAAG, 02 NOV

TD99W INVEST, declared a tropical depression by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) yesterday, has also had a T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) issued on it by the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) as it moves slowly to the west-northwest. The system is currently located just east of the Mariana Islands, and is expected to pass through the island chain as it slowly strengthens and begins to turn more poleward in the coming 48 hours.

99W INVEST full, 02 NOV

TD90W INVEST, also designated as a tropical depression by J.M.A. appears to be the dominant system out of the pair which includes 91W INVEST. Right now, a large monsoonal trough has formed, allowing moisture from 91W to be entrained into 90W, which we believe will result in absorption of the weaker 91W by TD90W in the next 24 hours. Computer forecast models are still all over the place with this system, with GFS and CMC showing a Philippines landfall scenario, while ECMWF shows the system being swept off to the northeast by the incoming continental surge. Much is still uncertain about this system, so it bears very close observance over the next few days.

90W INVEST full, 02 NOV

As mentioned previously, 91W INVEST is losing its punch as it get absorbed by TD90W, and should be taken off the books by this time tomorrow.

91W INVEST, 02 NOV

Elsewhere across the tropics, plentiful moisture and warm sunshine will team up to help generate showers and thunderstorms across much of the region.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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