MEARI LIKELY TO HEAD OUT TO SEA

Confidence building that Meari will track east AWAY from the Philippines and be “ejected” north becoming extra-tropical over the weekend. We mentioned this could happen yesterday and it does look like that is what is going to be taking place.

 

This is a end result of the cold surge which is blowing south over the Philippine sea putting pressure on the tropical trough located in the Philippines sea, as we mentioned yesterday if this trough was strong enough it would pull Meari north east instead of going towards the Philippines. Today it does look like that is exactly what is happening.

 

Numerical guidance is also falling in line, most major models all show Meari pulling north east and out to sea, as well as the ensemble guidance with the global models.

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Below is the ECMWF model ensemble, all outputs keep the storm north east outside of a few outliers that have a drift west then north.

 

Meanwhile JTWC and JMA also keep Meari going north.. in short those who panicked earlier when we posted watch and see what happens need to read closer in the future and understand why we say the forecast likely will change if we do.

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Stay safe out there!

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