Archive | November 7, 2016

Daily weather brief – Tuesday, November 8, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 08 NOV

NWPAC outlook, 08 NOV

NORTH

The latest Siberian surge has swept through much of the north region, leaving behind a very cold air mass for this mid-autumn day. The northern third of the region will see very chilly temperatures as the weather clears out in southeastern Russia. The frontal system will continue pushing through Japan and extreme eastern China as we go through the day, offering up a good chance for showers and occasional rainfall. Skies are mostly clear across the western half of the region as high pressure from the northwest builds into the area.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-1

-14 30 7

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

-4

-13 25 9

A.M. snow showers/P.M. fair

Beijing

11

-2 52 28

Mostly fair

Seoul

7

-3 45 27

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

15

10 59 50

Scattered showers likely

Xi’an

14

7 57 45

Partly cloudy

Shanghai

13

11 55 52

Periods of rain

 

CENTRAL

The newest Siberian air mass is drifting slowly to the southeast through the central region today. It will bring along clouds, showers, and cooler temperatures to much of the region through this afternoon, with the Ryukyu Islands of Japan escaping the inclement weather for one more day.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

11

8 52 46

Scattered showers likely

Hong Kong

27

18 81 64

Scattered showers likely

Taipei

27

18 81 64

Periods of rain

Naha

26

22 79 72

Mostly fair

Hanoi

23

16 73 61

Periods of rain

 

SOUTH

The south region has settled down a bit no that the tropical threats have diminished. High pressure is building down into the northern Philippines, and the incoming surge to the north is creating a bit of warm air and moisture advection over Indochina and the southern Philippines. Temperatures will we warm across the entirety of the south region, with a chance for an afternoon thunderstorm in place over all but the Island of Luzon in the Philippines.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

31

23 88 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Ho Chi Minh

31

23 88 73

Thunderstorms possible

Manila

32

23 90 73

Mostly fair

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

32

24 90 75

Partly cloudy

Singapore

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

Following a late-season burst of activity across the tropics, things are quieting don a bit now as 26W MEARI says goodbye, and 95W INVEST pops up in the east.

TAAG, 08 NOV

TAAG, 08 NOV

The remnant low of what was typhoon 1623/26W MEARI continues to jettison off to the northeast along the baroclinic zone east of Japan. The system is undergoing transition to an extra-tropical system, and all agencies have issued their final tropical bulletins on this system.

26W MEARI, 08 NOV

26W MEARI, 08 NOV

95W INVEST has entered the picture to the east in eastern Micronesia. Current forecast models show very little with this system as it eventually succumbs to drier air from the continental surge intrusions.

95W INVEST, 08 NOV

95W INVEST, 08 NOV

The majority of the locations in the tropics will see a good chance for afternoon showers or thunderstorms, while Guam, Wake, and Majuro get a break with slightly drier air in place.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Partly cloudy

Yap

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

27 86 81

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

28

26 82 79

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

30

25 86 77

Scattered showers likely

Majuro

29

26 84 79

Partly cloudy

Wake

29

26 84 79

Partly cloudy

 

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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TYPHOON HAIYAN / YOLANDA ; THREE YEARS LATER

It’s been three years since Typhoon Haiyan / Yolanda ripped through the central Philippines taking the lives of over 6,300 people and changing the way most look at typhoons forever.

Even today I still get messages from people worried about future storms more so now than ever because of their horrible experience in Haiyan. A storm which is often now used as the benchmark for the strongest a typhoon can get.

Official records have not confirmed Haiyan to be the strongest storm in recent history due to lack of observations and recon aircraft in the region. But taking a look at Satellite imagery one can infer this storm was on a whole other level and really stands alone in the realm of Super Typhoons.

 

The other main issue with this storm is that it made landfall right at peak intensity. Plowing on shore with record breaking winds it ushered in a storm surge that most residents referred to as a Tsunami like rise in sea level.  This wall of water left a swath of destruction kilometers inland. In the debris thousands of homes, businesses and lives were swept away.

 

It was not just Tacloban that suffered the worst of damage but towns much farther inland including in the Cebu area were also devastated due to the storm.

Unfortunately the path to rebuilding was rather slow in the area.  And now even red tape continues to delays some permanent buildings being set up.

After the storm there was a mass out pour of help from people from around the world.  By November 20th ships have arrived off the coast from various countries. Planes flew in directly to the worst hit and vast amount of supplies and relief goods flowed into the country from international aid in one of the largest relief and international cooperation operations ever to be undertaken.

 

Immediately after the storm we at Westpacwx put out a Message stating “The waters off of Leyte was the sight of the largest Naval Battle in recorded history, now let it be the sight of the largest relief operation in history”. It truly is pushing that at this time. With Hospital boats from China and the US on track to the Coast, the United States Aircraft Carrier George Washington off the Coast and the HMS Instramous en-route, hundreds of vehicles and aircraft on the scene, and over 33,000 of personnel entering the Philippines the international relief on the ground is pushing record heights. This is along with the billions of dollars which have been contributed to the efforts from not just donations but the every day person from around the world.

One of the main issues with Haiyan as well was the lack of sufficient warning ahead of the storm. As Jim Edds said on a interview with Jay Leno at the tonight show  “they had a broken truck warning people a storm was coming over a loud speaker”. In return most people thought it was just another typhoon and not the monster it truly was.

 

The good news is that the disorganization of the hours following Haiyan has now led to a brighter and much organized response. Lessons learned early on have given way to cooperation and efficiency.  PAGASA has put new guidelines in place since this storm and now stress storm surge more clearly in their Typhoon Bulletins. Furthermore they have added a Super Typhoon Category starting in 2015 to help alert people of an impending serious storm.

 

James Reynolds and Josh Morgerman having lived through this typhoon themselves will be in attendance. You can follow James Twitter Below.

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MEARI WEAKENS, COLD SURGE TO BRING A BLAST OF WINTER

Tropical Storm Meari continues to shift out to sea and in to the north pacific but the storm has one last impact for East Asia before it weakens out.

That is the cool air being dragged south along the west side of it spawning some heavy sea effect snow for northern areas of Japan over the weekend. In fact in Sapporo 20cm of snow fell thus far in November making it the heaviest start of November snow in 21 years for that city. *Side Fact; Sapporo is the snowiest city on earth with a population over 1,000,000 people*

With the cold air already in place another blast of moisture through mid-week will be the perfect catalyst for a early season snow storm / cold surge in north east Asia.

 

Starting on Tuesday through Wednesday cold air driving in out of Siberia will pick up moisture across the Sea of Japan and dump it on the mountains of Hokkaido, Tohoku and even further south in to the popular ski areas of Niigata and Nagano.

snow

The front will also be the leading edge of a cold surge that will plunge temperatures down across North East Asia. In Tokyo the mercury will flirt with the zero degree mark by Thursday morning and even in to Naha Okinawa for the first time this autumn the morning low could hit the high teens.

jma

Temperatures will re-bound through the weekend melting off some of the snow but still on the mountain tops it will remain cold enough to keep the snow pack in place.

 

Eventually this cold front will dive south stalling the tropics out diminishing the chance of any developing typhoons at least for the near future.