Daily weather brief – Monday, November 7, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 07 NOV

NORTH

A new surge of Siberian air is rolling through the north region as we enter the new work week. The leading edge of this air mass is stretched in a sweeping arc from southeastern Russia, back into north-central China as far west as the Tarin Basin, where the front pulls up stationary, unable to breech the higher terrain. Temperatures across Mongolia, northern China, and southeastern Russia are already in the deep-freeze, and readings will drop through the day for much of the remainder of the mainland locales within the region. A few showers will pop up in the Korean peninsula and in eastern China today as the front sweeps on through, with snow expected over southeastern Russia. The remainder of the region will see lots of chilly sunshine as we go through the afternoon.

CENTRAL

Temperatures are rebounding across the central region following last week’s moderate Siberian surge that pushed through and cleared out the tropical moisture. Warm air advection is helping bring temperatures up ahead of the new surge that will push through later in the week. A few thunderstorms could pop up over the higher terrain of south-central China this afternoon, and lingering moisture could help spawn a few showers over southern China and northern Indochina as well.

SOUTH

High pressure is once again extending down into the northern Philippines, helping to clear skies and warm up temperatures over most of the country. Tropical moisture remains in place over the remainder of the region and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely across Indochina, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and northern Indonesia as this moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sun.

TROPICS

Three active disturbances remain on the radar in the tropics as typhoon 26W MEARI begins to move out of the picture, while 93W and 94W INVEST disturbances keep us on our toes.

TAAG, 07 NOV

Typhoon 1623/26W MEARI continues to hold its own as it begins to enter a much less-favorable area for development, nearing the baroclinic zone to its north. The storm poses a threat to only shipping interests as it continues to track to the northeast over open water. The system is expected to begin weakening in the next 24 hours and will likely make the transition to an extra-tropical system by mid-week.

26W MEARI full, 07 NOV

Tropical disturbance 93W INVEST is poised east of Mindanao in the southern Philippines this morning. Computer forecast models are just not doing much with this system as drier air and higher VWS (Vertical Wind Shear) enters the picture from the north. Tropical disturbance 94W INVEST is located farther to the east in eastern Micronesia and it very poorly-defined. Computer forecast models are also being very inconclusive about this system, but showing no real signs of development.

ALL INVEST, 07 NOV

Locales within the region will see another day of picture-perfect weather as deep tropical moisture remains in place and gets a lift from the warm afternoon sun to squeeze out scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across most locations.

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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