Daily weather brief – Monday, November 14, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 14 NOV

NORTH

Repeated surges of Siberian air continue to roll through the northern region as we start the new week. The latest surge is clipping the northernmost reaches of the region, bringing very cold temperatures to Mongolia and northern China. Most of the energy from this surge will travel to the east, but enough of the cold air will filter south to reinforce the already cold surface layer. This surge is going to open the door for a much stronger surge that will move through next weekend, bringing the first real taste of winter to the region. The earlier surge that moved through last week has stalled out over Japan and mainland East Asia, bringing clouds and showers to the eastern third of the region, while high pressure builds in and clear skies a bit in the west.

CENTRAL

Temperatures have moderated across the central region and are holding mostly steady to kick off the week. This looks to remain until a new, stronger cold surge pushes through next weekend, bringing temperatures down much more. Most locations across the central region will see just a few scattered clouds, while moisture streaming in from the west will keep skies cloudy with a few showers in southern China and northern Indochina.

SOUTH

Drier air has moved well into the south region, especially over portions of Indochina and the Philippines. Temperatures will be quite warm under the mostly clear skies, but the humidity will be significantly lower, making it much more comfortable to bear. Moisture stays locked in for the southern third of the region, as clouds and thunderstorms pop during the peak of afternoon heating across northern Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, and Singapore.

TROPICS

After watching a couple of weak systems try to get started, we now find a lull in activity as the tropics start feeling the effects of the seasonal changes.

TAAG, 14 NOV

With the demise of 27W MA-ON, we find only the remnants of what was tropical depression 28W lingering around south of the Mariana Islands. Computer forecast models are not doing much with this system as it remains in an area rather hostile for tropical cyclone formation.

28W, 14 NOV

The remainder of the region will see plenty of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as the warm sunshine lifts up the available moisture.

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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