The tropics remain relatively calm today thanks to a rather potent series of cold surges out of Siberia bringing in dry air and high shear south. Furthermore a lack of any MJO pulses has contributed to a rather calm week now for those tracking tropical systems.
At first glance at the satellite image though something does stick out in the tropics, a low south of Guam that looks like it could be something at first glance. This is actually the remnants of 28w that developed late last week and then faded away. Yet to the north west of the low a apparent shear line is diving south and like a edge of a sword is expected to cut right through our developing low leaving it lifeless by weeks end.
This is why it is important during the months of November – February as a young inspiring tropical wave to remain south of 10N and in a sort of “safe zone”. Major November / December storms of the past, (Bopha, Haiyan, Wilma) all managed to do this.
Numerical guidance and specifically the GFS does pick up on a storm trying to do this next week. Granted right now there is no initialization of a low just yet to guage if the model is accurate and considering it shows a storm / typhoon over 7 days out our confidence is slim on that actually occurring. But it is interesting none the less to look at. You can use this website to check out what the models are saying right now.