WesternPacificWeather.com

A cold northerly wind is dominating much of North East Asia today as the most potent cold surge of the year flows south kicking the doors wide open for old man winter to walk in.

The cold air is one thing but with a low pressure area creating instability along the pacific coastline of Japan over the next 24hrs we can expect wide spread frozen precipitation for much of Central Japan by Thursday morning.

Forecast Through Thursday Morning

Yamanashi, Niigata and Nagano (Koushin Area) 10CM

Northern Kanto (Chiba) 5CM

Saitama 5CM

TOKYO 3CM WESTERN TOKYO 1-2CM IN METRO

Hakone Tama and Chichibu 5CM

Chiba 1CM

Kanagawa and Shizuoka Up to 5CM

The snow should start early morning prior to sunrise in the Greater Tokyo area and continue through early to mid-afternoon.

While most of Japan is built for heavy snowfall especially in the north and along the Sea of Japan coast the Metro Tokyo area is not prepared at all. The roads are narrow and there is such limited snowfall annually that there is little in snow removal.

Total Snowfall Accumulation

Expect travel delays on the roads, trains and likely at Narita airport where snow is expected.

Good news is things will improve swiftly by Friday and in to the weekend for the Tokyo area, more snow will continue through Friday in the mountains and again early next week. I am sure for many people especially those operating in Ski Country this will be no complaint.

Tokyo 4 Day Forecast JMA

NWPAC outlook, 22 NOV

NORTH

High pressure continues to build in over the north region, bringing a round of seriously cold air to the region, especially over the northernmost locales. Mongolia, northern China, and southeastern Russia will stay in the deep-freeze today as temperatures stay well below freezing. Temperatures are a bit warmer to the south and east, while Japan will see a relatively balmy day as temperatures rise above 20C ahead of the surge. Most locations will see a day of bright sunshine, while snow showers fall over portions of central China along the stalled frontal boundary.

CENTRAL

Temperatures remain steady over the central region as a weak frontal boundary washes out overhead, bringing a good chance for showers along a line from Taiwan back to Hong Kong and into northern Indochina.

SOUTH

Warm, muggy conditions continue over the south region today as high pressure continues to weaken over much of the region. The northern Philippines will see lingering effects of the retreating high pressure area as skies remain partly cloudy. Residents of the southern Philippines are watching the developments of 98W INVEST, as some models take this system through the archipelago later in the week. Most locations in the region will see a decent chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the deep moisture gets a lift from the warm sunshine.

TROPICS

98W INVEST is the focus of attention in the tropics as forecasts indicate the system to possibly affect the Philippines by the end of the week.

TAAG, 22 NOV

98W INVEST continues to slowly gather strength far to the east of the Philippines. Due to the lower latitude and the marginally favorable conditions over the region, significant strengthening is not expected by this system, but it could get up to tropical storm strength. Computer forecast models are still uncertain on the final disposition of the system, with some models showing a re-curvature scenario and others showing the system to cross over the southern third of the Philippines.

98W INVEST, 22 NOV

Elsewhere across the region, plentiful moisture and warm sunshine will join forces to help generate afternoon showers and thunderstorms over many locales.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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Parts of North East Asia are looking at absolutely frigid temperatures combined with some near record breaking high pressures Monday morning.  In one location in Northern Mongolia the sea level pressure rose to a stunning 1085.1HPA.  (The highest SLP on record over 750m is 1090.1hpa at the same point in 2004.) With a pressure this high and through the overnight hours a massive amount of nocturnal cooling took place combined with a inversion with the cold air and temperatures were pushed down to -40C, so cold that the temperature Celsius temperature was actually lower than the Fahrenheit.

This statistics are pretty impressive but most people are probably thinking unless I live in Northern Mongolia how does this effect me? In fact Siberia is the heart of the North East Monsoon and the general layout of winter weather in North East Asia, and with temperatures so low and the pressure so high all of that cold air is going to want to go somewhere.  The high will want to flow towards lower pressure along with cold air moving south over the coming days is what looks to be a fairly potent cold surge. For those in Seoul expect temperatures to drop well below freezing through mid-week as the surge heads south.

Residents of Okinawa the coldest air of the season will move south combined with gusty winds mid-week.

But one of the biggest surprises is Tokyo where temperatures will be near the freezing point overnight Thursday and a weak trough will be pushing over head. This could be just enough to bring some snowfall in the Tokyo area early Thursday morning.

Total Snowfall Through Thursday Morning (ECMWF MODEL)

This would be unprecedented if it was to occur and at first glance I would discount that possibility in November. Yet right now we are looking at record breaking cold and high pressure across Siberia, and with a anomaly like that taking place we must consider the possibility of something out of the ordinary taking place elsewhere.

Right now three numerical models. (GFS, JMA and ECMWF) all predict a wet snow accumulation Thursday morning. This of course would be a record early snow fall in the city which typically does not get it until January.  For now I would not go ahead and say it will snow, but there is a high enough chance that the cold rain could change over to the white stuff in the Metro area that I think we should continue monitoring it very closely.

The mountains of Japan will see wide spread snowfall as well, maybe even allowing ski resorts in central Honshu to open up this coming weekend.