Archive | November, 2016

Early Winter Storm in Central Japan and TOKYO

A cold northerly wind is dominating much of North East Asia today as the most potent cold surge of the year flows south kicking the doors wide open for old man winter to walk in.

 

The cold air is one thing but with a low pressure area creating instability along the pacific coastline of Japan over the next 24hrs we can expect wide spread frozen precipitation for much of Central Japan by Thursday morning.

nhk

Forecast Through Thursday Morning

 

Yamanashi, Niigata and Nagano (Koushin Area) 10CM

Northern Kanto (Chiba) 5CM

Saitama 5CM

TOKYO 3CM WESTERN TOKYO 1-2CM IN METRO

Hakone Tama and Chichibu 5CM

Chiba 1CM

Kanagawa and Shizuoka Up to 5CM

 

The snow should start early morning prior to sunrise in the Greater Tokyo area and continue through early to mid-afternoon.

 

While most of Japan is built for heavy snowfall especially in the north and along the Sea of Japan coast the Metro Tokyo area is not prepared at all. The roads are narrow and there is such limited snowfall annually that there is little in snow removal.

 

Total Snowfall Accumulation

Total Snowfall Accumulation

Expect travel delays on the roads, trains and likely at Narita airport where snow is expected.

 

Good news is things will improve swiftly by Friday and in to the weekend for the Tokyo area, more snow will continue through Friday in the mountains and again early next week. I am sure for many people especially those operating in Ski Country this will be no complaint.

Tokyo 4 Day Forecast JMA

Tokyo 4 Day Forecast JMA

Daily weather brief – Tuesday, November 22, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 22 NOV

NWPAC outlook, 22 NOV

NORTH

High pressure continues to build in over the north region, bringing a round of seriously cold air to the region, especially over the northernmost locales. Mongolia, northern China, and southeastern Russia will stay in the deep-freeze today as temperatures stay well below freezing. Temperatures are a bit warmer to the south and east, while Japan will see a relatively balmy day as temperatures rise above 20C ahead of the surge. Most locations will see a day of bright sunshine, while snow showers fall over portions of central China along the stalled frontal boundary.

City High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Ulaanbaatar

-19

-27 -2 -7

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

-8

-14 18 7

Mostly fair

Beijing

1

-6 34 21

Mostly fair

Seoul

4

-5 39 23

Mostly fair

Tokyo

21

10 70 50

Mostly fair

Xi’an

0

-3 32 27

Periods of snow

Shanghai

14

8 57 46

Periods of rain

 

CENTRAL

Temperatures remain steady over the central region as a weak frontal boundary washes out overhead, bringing a good chance for showers along a line from Taiwan back to Hong Kong and into northern Indochina.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

19

6 66 43

Mostly fair

Hong Kong

26

22 79 72

Periods of rain

Taipei

25

20 77 68

Periods of rain

Naha

27

22 81 73

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

31

22 88 72

Scattered showers likely

 

SOUTH

Warm, muggy conditions continue over the south region today as high pressure continues to weaken over much of the region. The northern Philippines will see lingering effects of the retreating high pressure area as skies remain partly cloudy. Residents of the southern Philippines are watching the developments of 98W INVEST, as some models take this system through the archipelago later in the week. Most locations in the region will see a decent chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the deep moisture gets a lift from the warm sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

29

23 84 73

Thunderstorms possible

Ho Chi Minh

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms possible

Manila

33

25 91 77

Partly cloudy

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Singapore

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

98W INVEST is the focus of attention in the tropics as forecasts indicate the system to possibly affect the Philippines by the end of the week.

TAAG, 22 NOV

TAAG, 22 NOV

98W INVEST continues to slowly gather strength far to the east of the Philippines. Due to the lower latitude and the marginally favorable conditions over the region, significant strengthening is not expected by this system, but it could get up to tropical storm strength. Computer forecast models are still uncertain on the final disposition of the system, with some models showing a re-curvature scenario and others showing the system to cross over the southern third of the Philippines.

98W INVEST, 22 NOV

98W INVEST, 22 NOV

Elsewhere across the region, plentiful moisture and warm sunshine will join forces to help generate afternoon showers and thunderstorms over many locales.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Palau

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

31

28 88 82

Partly cloudy

Wake

29

26 84 79

Partly cloudy

 

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

SEVERE COLD AND NEAR RECORD BREAKING HIGH PRESSURE

pressure

Parts of North East Asia are looking at absolutely frigid temperatures combined with some near record breaking high pressures Monday morning.  In one location in Northern Mongolia the sea level pressure rose to a stunning 1085.1HPA.  (The highest SLP on record over 750m is 1090.1hpa at the same point in 2004.) With a pressure this high and through the overnight hours a massive amount of nocturnal cooling took place combined with a inversion with the cold air and temperatures were pushed down to -40C, so cold that the temperature Celsius temperature was actually lower than the Fahrenheit.

This statistics are pretty impressive but most people are probably thinking unless I live in Northern Mongolia how does this effect me? In fact Siberia is the heart of the North East Monsoon and the general layout of winter weather in North East Asia, and with temperatures so low and the pressure so high all of that cold air is going to want to go somewhere.  The high will want to flow towards lower pressure along with cold air moving south over the coming days is what looks to be a fairly potent cold surge. For those in Seoul expect temperatures to drop well below freezing through mid-week as the surge heads south.

seoul

Residents of Okinawa the coldest air of the season will move south combined with gusty winds mid-week.

 

But one of the biggest surprises is Tokyo where temperatures will be near the freezing point overnight Thursday and a weak trough will be pushing over head. This could be just enough to bring some snowfall in the Tokyo area early Thursday morning.

 

Total Snowfall Through Thursday Morning

Total Snowfall Through Thursday Morning (ECMWF MODEL)

This would be unprecedented if it was to occur and at first glance I would discount that possibility in November. Yet right now we are looking at record breaking cold and high pressure across Siberia, and with a anomaly like that taking place we must consider the possibility of something out of the ordinary taking place elsewhere.

 

Right now three numerical models. (GFS, JMA and ECMWF) all predict a wet snow accumulation Thursday morning. This of course would be a record early snow fall in the city which typically does not get it until January.  For now I would not go ahead and say it will snow, but there is a high enough chance that the cold rain could change over to the white stuff in the Metro area that I think we should continue monitoring it very closely.

 

The mountains of Japan will see wide spread snowfall as well, maybe even allowing ski resorts in central Honshu to open up this coming weekend.

 

Daily weather brief – Monday, November 21, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 21 NOV

NWPAC outlook, 21 NOV

NORTH

Very cold air has settled over much of the north region as the newest Siberian surge permeates the region. A very strong area of high pressure to the northwest in Siberia is responsible for pumping in colder and drier air, with temperatures across Mongolia, northern China, and southeastern Russia staying below zero through the day. The cold air boundary has pulled up stationary over northern China and will slowly work its way to the south and east over the next 48 hours. Rain showers are likely along the main surge boundary through northern China. These will be changing over to snow showers with frontal passage. Temperatures ahead of this boundary are comfortably mild with most readings in the teens. Eastern locales will see a chance for showers today as a weaker, leading frontal boundary moves away to the east.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Ulaanbaatar -21 -29 -6 -20 Partly cloudy
Vladivostok -4 -13 25 9 Mostly cloudy
Beijing -1 -9 30 16 Periods of snow
Seoul 17 3 63 37 Partly cloudy
Tokyo 15 11 59 52 Scattered showers likely
Xi’an 11 1 52 34 Scattered showers likely
Shanghai 21 14 70 57 Scattered showers likely

 

CENTRAL

Temperatures are holding steady across the central region as moisture slowly returns to the region from the south. Low pressure sliding along a stalled frontal boundary just east of the Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan will help generate showers and scattered thunderstorms over those areas. The remainder of the region will see a nice day with just a few scattered clouds and mild to warm temperatures.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Kunming 19 7 66 45 Mostly fair
Hong Kong 28 24 82 75 Partly cloudy
Taipei 27 22 81 72 Periods of rain
Naha 28 23 82 73 Thunderstorms likely
Hanoi 31 23 88 73 Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

It will be another hot and muggy autumn day across much of the south region as high pressure retreats back to the north across most of the region. Most of the region, from Indochina to the southern Philippines, will see a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, while the northern Philippines stays dry underneath the final vestiges of the recently-dominant high pressure to the north.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Siem Reap 32 24 90 75 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Ho Chi Minh 32 25 90 77 Thunderstorms possible
Manila 32 24 90 75 Mostly fair
Davao City 33 24 91 75 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei 32 24 90 75 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Singapore 31 25 88 77 Thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

After a quiet 4-5 days in the tropics, we finally have another area of disturbed weather on the official lists for observation.

TAAG, 21 NOV

TAAG, 21 NOV

98W INVEST is a spunky swirl of clouds and energy, far to the south in the retreating I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). Although the southerly latitude could hinder any rapid development due to a lack of Coriolis forces in play, we have seen in the past that this is much less of a factor in systems with other favorable characteristics. Current computer model forecasts are inconclusive on this system, with some showing a re-curving track parallel to the eastern coast of the Philippines, and others showing passage over the southern third of the archipelago as a weak tropical system.

98W INVEST, 21 NOV

98W INVEST, 21 NOV

Elsewhere across the tropics, scattered pockets of energy, plentiful moisture, and warm sunshine will add up to a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms across many locales within the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

32

27 90 81

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

31

25 88 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

29

26 84 79

Partly cloudy

 

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com