Is invest 90W a relatively weak low pressure area near the equator and south of Palau something people need to worry about?

 This is a question I have seen pop up over the past few days thanks to a few select model runs which develop the storm, but at least at this time I can say no there is nothing to worry about.. Fretting about what long range models show is like constantly worrying that a asteroid will drop out of the sky. Yes there is a possibility it could occur but the chance is low.

This MEME kind of shows my thought process for 200hr plus model outlooks.


Still though we should watch this area and be on alert if it does decide to develop in to something interesting. Right now the most aggressive model in our global numerical arsenal of forecasting is the GFS which continues to develop a powerful typhoon heading in to early next week. The GFS has also been rather consistent on developing “something” east of the Philippines next week, thing is it is the only model to do so and has been inconsistent on what it wants to do with it over the past few days. What this means is the model is not very confident at this time and with no other global guidance on board I still think its worth watching but not worrying about just yet.


ALL OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS at this time are not showing a storm developing and keep 90W weak, furthermore it is December and climate statistical odds are stacked against this little low.


Still though we will continue to watch it over the coming days. And as always check back in for more updates!



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