Daily weather brief – Tuesday, December 20, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 20 DEC

NORTH

The big story in the north region continues to be the dangerous haze conditions across northeastern China, as high pressure continues to reign in the area, causing stagnant atmospheric conditions. A new weather system is on the horizon which will help sweep out much of the funk, but for the next couple of days, air quality conditions will remain status quo over this area. To the northwest, a new surge of Siberian air is moving into Mongolia, bringing snow showers and a drop in temperatures. Fog and low clouds continue to hamper travel across the high country of central China, while scattered showers dampen spirits across eastern China. Aside from the most northerly locales, high temperatures will be comfortably cool across the north region, with most readings in the mid-teens C (50’s F).

CENTRAL

The central region will see a rather warm day with temperatures inching upwards as the latest air mass moderates over the region. Cloudy skies will persist over the higher terrain of south-central China while scattered showers are likely offshore to the east and over portions of southern China and northern Indochina. The remainder of the region will see plenty of sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.

SOUTH

Attention in the south region is turned to newly-designated tropical disturbance 92W INVEST, which looks to bring a stormy Christmas surprise top parts of the Philippines this weekend. I’ll have more on this system in the “tropics” section of this update. Otherwise, fair weather will dominate much of the region today, especially over central Indochina and the Philippines, while deep tropical moisture remains locked in over more southerly locales of Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and southern Vietnam. Temperatures will be quite warm region wide, with readings in the low-30’s C (near 90F).

TROPICS

Newly-designated tropical disturbance 92W INVEST looks to bring in a round of stormy weather to the Philippines, just in time for Christmas.

92W INVEST, located southwest of Chuuk Island, Micronesia, was designated late yesterday morning by the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory). The system is slowly consolidating southwest of Chuuk Island, Micronesia as it slowly moves west-northwest towards the Philippines. The current forecasts from GFS, ECM, and JMA show a rather weak system moving over the northern Visayas and southern Luzon area on Christmas Eve. GFS shows a system with central pressure near 996hPa, ECM shows it to be near 998hPa, and JMA shows it near 1006hPa. All of these estimates would correspond to a strong tropical depression or possibly a weak tropical storm. This means that the central Philippines (Visayas and southern Luzon) will see a very stormy Christmas. While winds may not pose the greatest risk, heavy rainfall from this system will inundate areas already saturated by the rain brought in from the seasonal northeast monsoon (amihan). Widespread flooding, landslides, and other associated hazards are likely as this system passes through the archipelago. We will continue to monitor this situation for further developments.

Elsewhere across the tropics, deep moisture south of 10 degrees north latitude, and west of 150 east longitude, will enhance shower and thunderstorm chances across the island locations of the region, while more easterly and northerly locales such as Guam, Wake, and the Marshall Islands will see much drier air in place, and much more sunshine.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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