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Daily weather brief – Tuesday, December 20, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 20 DEC

NWPAC outlook, 20 DEC

NORTH

The big story in the north region continues to be the dangerous haze conditions across northeastern China, as high pressure continues to reign in the area, causing stagnant atmospheric conditions. A new weather system is on the horizon which will help sweep out much of the funk, but for the next couple of days, air quality conditions will remain status quo over this area. To the northwest, a new surge of Siberian air is moving into Mongolia, bringing snow showers and a drop in temperatures. Fog and low clouds continue to hamper travel across the high country of central China, while scattered showers dampen spirits across eastern China. Aside from the most northerly locales, high temperatures will be comfortably cool across the north region, with most readings in the mid-teens C (50’s F).

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-7

-24 19 -11

Snow showers likely

Vladivostok

4

-8 39 18

Mostly fair

Beijing

8

-2 46 28

Haze

Seoul

13

1 55 34

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

15

6 59 43

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

12

3 54 37

Fog and low clouds

Shanghai

14

13 57 55

Scattered showers likely

 

CENTRAL

The central region will see a rather warm day with temperatures inching upwards as the latest air mass moderates over the region. Cloudy skies will persist over the higher terrain of south-central China while scattered showers are likely offshore to the east and over portions of southern China and northern Indochina. The remainder of the region will see plenty of sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

17

7 63 45

Mostly cloudy

Hong Kong

26

22 79 72

Partly cloudy

Taipei

28

21 82 70

Partly cloudy

Naha

24

22 75 72

Scattered showers likely

Hanoi

28

22 82 72

Scattered showers likely

 

SOUTH

Attention in the south region is turned to newly-designated tropical disturbance 92W INVEST, which looks to bring a stormy Christmas surprise top parts of the Philippines this weekend. I’ll have more on this system in the “tropics” section of this update. Otherwise, fair weather will dominate much of the region today, especially over central Indochina and the Philippines, while deep tropical moisture remains locked in over more southerly locales of Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and southern Vietnam. Temperatures will be quite warm region wide, with readings in the low-30’s C (near 90F).

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

23 90 73

Partly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms possible

Manila

31

25 88 77

Partly cloudy

Davao City

32

23 90 73

Partly cloudy

Brunei

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms possible

Singapore

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

Newly-designated tropical disturbance 92W INVEST looks to bring in a round of stormy weather to the Philippines, just in time for Christmas.

15592479_1377522645593892_1904616406_n

92W INVEST, located southwest of Chuuk Island, Micronesia, was designated late yesterday morning by the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory). The system is slowly consolidating southwest of Chuuk Island, Micronesia as it slowly moves west-northwest towards the Philippines. The current forecasts from GFS, ECM, and JMA show a rather weak system moving over the northern Visayas and southern Luzon area on Christmas Eve. GFS shows a system with central pressure near 996hPa, ECM shows it to be near 998hPa, and JMA shows it near 1006hPa. All of these estimates would correspond to a strong tropical depression or possibly a weak tropical storm. This means that the central Philippines (Visayas and southern Luzon) will see a very stormy Christmas. While winds may not pose the greatest risk, heavy rainfall from this system will inundate areas already saturated by the rain brought in from the seasonal northeast monsoon (amihan). Widespread flooding, landslides, and other associated hazards are likely as this system passes through the archipelago. We will continue to monitor this situation for further developments.

15609029_1377520298927460_1833095425_o

Elsewhere across the tropics, deep moisture south of 10 degrees north latitude, and west of 150 east longitude, will enhance shower and thunderstorm chances across the island locations of the region, while more easterly and northerly locales such as Guam, Wake, and the Marshall Islands will see much drier air in place, and much more sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

25 86 77

Partly cloudy

Yap

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

26 86 79

Mostly cloudy

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Partly cloudy

Wake

28

25 82 77

Mostly fair

 

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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