Invest 92W located just south east of Palau continues to look more and more dangerous today with increasing chances that this could develop in to our final named storm of 2016. At least at this time it is a low pressure area according to JMA but they also expect it within 24hrs to be declared a tropical depression.


The big question though is where this developing storm could go. There are a few models (GFS / ECMWF) which develop this in to a Tropical Storm and impacting the central Philippines by Christmas day, while NAVGEM keeps it off shore and re-curving to the east. Both scenarios seem possible but at least at this time there is little certainty on which one. At this time my personal guess is this will stay on a westward track based on mean wind analysis from CIMSS and historical data.


The intensity of what this could be is another big unknown factor. Models are all over the place on that and the Philippine sea in the past has a history of rapidly developing storms prior to landfall. This would be very bad news for Mindanao or Visayas areas that do not get storms often and are very vulnerable to them. Even weak tropical storms (Washi) in the past have left hundreds dead. Stay tuned for more updates over the coming days, this post is mainly just a heads up for those getting ready for the holiday weekend.

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