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Daily weather brief – Wednesday, December 21, 2016

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NORTH

 

On this first official day of winter, and the winter solstice, haze and hazardous air quality conditions continue over portions of northern China while relief in the form of a strong cold surge is poised on the horizon. This current surge is making its way through Mongolia and extreme northern China today, sweeping to the east-southeast rather quickly. Snowfall will give way to partly cloudy skies in Mongolia today and the main focus of energy slides to the east. Temperatures are dropping across the northern tier of the region, and will expand to the south and east in the coming days. Moisture out ahead of the surge will bring considerable cloudiness to northeastern China and southeastern Russia, while warmer readings with rainfall will dampen spirits in the Korean peninsula, eastern China, and the higher terrain of central China.

 

City High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Ulaanbaatar -14 -26 7 -15 AM Snow showers/PM Ptly. Cloudy
Vladivostok 1 -8 34 18 Mostly cloudy
Beijing 6 -1 43 30 Mostly cloudy/Haze
Seoul 12 8 54 46 Periods of rain
Tokyo 17 9 63 48 Mostly fair
Xi’an 11 3 52 37 Periods of rain
Shanghai 19 8 57 46 Periods of rain

 

CENTRAL

 

Temperatures continue to moderate across much of the central region as warm air advects ahead of the new Siberian surge far to the north. Scattered showers will pop up over portions of northern Indochina and southern China, including the higher terrain, and along the southeast coast, while a few thunderstorms cold develop this afternoon over Taiwan as the moisture gets lifted up by the terrain.

 

City High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Kunming 17 7 63 45 Scattered showers likely
Hong Kong 25 21 77 70 Scattered showers likely
Taipei 28 19 82 66 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Naha 25 22 77 72 Partly cloudy
Hanoi 29 19 84 66 Scattered showers likely

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SOUTH

 

Attention in the south region is clearly focused on what may be a Christmas Grinch of a storm in the form of what is now 92W INVEST. Please refer to the “tropics’ section of this update for more information. Currently, slightly drier air is sliding through the northern Philippines and over interior Indochina, while more southerly climes remain locked in the tropical funk and can expect a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain warm over the region, with low 30’sC (near 90F) dominating.

 

City High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Siem Reap 32 23 90 73 Partly cloudy
Ho Chi Minh 32 24 90 75 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Manila 31 24 88 75 Mostly fair
Davao City 31 24 88 75 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei 32 24 90 75 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Singapore 33 24 91 75 Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

92W INVEST continues to consolidate and looks to bring a Grinch storm to the Philippines on or near Christmas day…

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92W INVEST is located near 7.0N, 143.7E early this morning, about 2200km (1361mi) east-southeast of Cebu City, Philippines. The system continues to move to the west very slowly.

 

Latest forecast models, especially GFS, have trended upward in strength estimates for this system. GFS is showing a significant storm system at 948hPa, while ECM keeps the storm much weaker at 991hPa, and JMA shows an even weaker system at 1001hPa. Personally speaking, I feel the GFS output is an anomalous estimate, given the atmospheric conditions, and the current O.H.C. (Ocean Heat Content), which is rather low as you approach the archipelago. However, it is clear that the models, at least, do show a significant storm on some level, moving into the PHL during the December 25-26 time frame.

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It is my personal recommendation that residents of the eastern Philippines, from the eastern Visayas to central Luzon, begin initial preparations for a significant weather system. This means stocking up on water and non-perishable foods, LPG for cooking, and planning an evacuation route if you feel it may be necessary. Better preparation is the key, and with the holiday approaching, one may tend to be lax or even discount the threat.

The current path estimates show northern Visayas to southern Luzon, including Bicol region as the most likely track. There are no official forecast tracks due to the current weak state of the system. However, the path forecasts will change due to the evolving atmospheric conditions, so all areas mentioned previously should monitor the progress of this system.

Elsewhere across the tropics, moisture is well in place over the majority of the region, so afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely in most spots. Temperatures will be warm, so it will feel nothing like the first official day of winter.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

29

27 84 81

Scattered showers possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

28

25 82 77

Mostly cloudy

 

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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