Daily weather brief – Friday, December 23, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 23 DEC

NORTH

A surge of cold Siberian air is sliding east-southeast through the north region, and is the harbinger of an even colder air mass that will arrive early next week. The latest storm system associated with the surge is making its way offshore of Japan, with a strong low situated near northeastern Hokkaido. Skies will be cloudy across Southeastern Russia, northeastern China, the Korean peninsula, and northern Japan and a few snow showers and flurries are possible across these areas, especially to the east. Sea-effect snow is likely across northern and central japan as well as high pressure builds in and brings a strong northwesterly wind across the relatively warm waters of the Sea of Japan. Temperatures across continental areas of the northern half of the region will be near, or below, 0C (32F) today, with areas to the south and east seeing readings in the teens. Tokyo will see record warmth today ahead of frontal passage later tonight, when temperatures will drop significantly.

CENTRAL

The latest frontal system to pass through the central region has cleared things out quite nicely, leaving behind a refreshing shot of cooler and drier air over the region. Temperatures will be down slightly over readings from the past few days, with only portions of southern china and northern Indochina seeing an increase as warm air from the south advects northward a bit. Aside from a few showers over the higher terrain of south-central China, skies will be partly cloudy region-wide.

SOUTH

All attention in the south, and especially the Philippines, is focused on the progress of tropical storm NOCK-TEN, also named “Nina” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA. This storm looks to bring quite a hit to the most populated area of the country late this weekend and early next week. For more on this system, please see the ‘tropics” section of this briefing. Drier air has settled into much of the northern half of the south region, especially over Indochina and the northern half of the Philippines, keeping skies clear to partly cloudy. Tropical moisture remains over the southern half of the region, where a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms could pop up during the peak of daytime heating. Temperatures will remain warm, with most locations seeing readings in the low 30’s C (near 90F).

TROPICS

Tropical storm 30W NOCK-TEN continues to increase strength…has entered the P.A.R. (Philippine Area of Responsibility) and has been named “Nina” by PAGASA…forecasts show southern Luzon landfall during the early morning hours of December 26th…

TAAG, 23 DEC

30W NOCK-TEN (Nina) continues to strengthen as it moves towards the Philippines. At 5am PST, J.T.W.C placed the center near 10.9N, 135.0E, or about 1251km (777mi) east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay, Philippines. The system is moving west-northwest at 18 knots (33kph). Latest official forecast tracks bring the system into southern Luzon on Christmas day and strength estimates on landfall between J.T.W.C. and J.M.A now agree. J.T.W.C. and J.M.A. are showing a system with peak sustained winds of 105kt (194kph) early Christmas morning, a “violent typhoon” on the J.M.A. scale, or, a moderate CAT 3 equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with landfall strength near 100kt (185kph).

Residents of the eastern Philippines, from the northern Visayas to central Luzon, and particularly the Bicol region of Luzon, should have begun initial preparations for a significant weather system, and should begin secondary preparations as soon as possible. This means stocking up on water and non-perishable foods, LPG for cooking, and planning an evacuation route if you feel it may be necessary. Fuel your vehicles, start bringing in and/or securing any outside objects that can become dangerous wind-driven projectiles. Taping or boarding of windows may be necessary, and these efforts should be done on places of interest that will not be occupied during the storm, such as a place of business or an extra building/garage. Better preparation is the key, and with the holiday approaching, one may tend to be lax or even discount the threat.

The current official tracks show the system to enter south-central Luzon in Quezon province early in the morning on December 26th, quickly crossing south-central Luzon just north of Manila, exiting into the South China Sea in the province of Zambales on the evening of December 26. However, due to the storm’s proximity to the Bicol peninsula extension of Luzon, effects will start to be felt in that region starting early morning Christmas Day. Forecasts will change due to the evolving atmospheric conditions, so all areas mentioned previously should monitor the progress of this system.

Elsewhere across the tropics, plenty of latent moisture remains over much of the region, so afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely, especially over western locales. The tail end of a continental surge will help bring some showers to Wake Island today, while temperatures across the region are indicative of the minimal sun angle and intrusions of cooler air from the north, settling in near the upper20’s C (mid-upper 80’s F).

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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