Weekend weather brief – December 24/25, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 24-25 DEC

NORTH

Temperatures are cold across the northern half of the north region, courtesy of the latest surge to move into the area. The associated storm system is pushing offshore of northern japan today with a cold front sweeping through the archipelago from north to south. Most of the moisture and inclement weather is associated directly with the strong low pressure area; however, sea-effect snowfall will be prevalent across the western shores and higher terrain of Hokkaido and northern Honshu. High pressure is building in behind the storm system and is bringing clearing conditions across much of the continent, except for portions of eastern China where the frontal system and moisture coming in from the west will keep skies grey and showery.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                          Sun

Ulaanbaatar -12 10 -18 0 Mostly cloudy Mostly fair
Vladivostok -6 21 -4 25 Partly cloudy Mostly fair
Beijing 4 39 3 37 Mostly fair Mostly cloudy
Seoul 2 36 8 46 Partly cloudy Mostly fair
Tokyo 11 52 11 52 Mostly fair Partly cloudy
Xi’an N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Shanghai 11 52 16 61 Mostly cloudy Sctd. showers

 

CENTRAL

Temperatures across the central region will rebound a bit through the weekend as warmer air advects northward ahead of the surge to the north. A few showers will fall across portions of southeastern China and Taiwan today, and skies will remain cloudy over the Ryukyu Islands through the weekend. Temperatures will remain comfortably mild across the region, with the warmest readings to the south.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming 16 61 17 63 Partly cloudy Partly cloudy
Hong Kong 20 68 23 73 Sctd. showers Partly cloudy
Taipei 21 70 24 75 Sctd. showers Partly cloudy
Naha 20 68 22 72 Mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy
Hanoi 24 75 27 81 Fog/low clouds Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

Residents of the Philippines are watching the developments of typhoon NOCK-TEN, also named “Nina” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, as it continues to strengthen and move towards the northern half of the archipelago. Storm warning signals have been issued for parts of southeastern Luzon by PAGASA as the storm bears down on the region. For more information on this system, please refer to the “tropics” section of this briefing.

The remainder of the region will enjoy a rather warm, but pleasant, weekend as drier air infiltrates Indochina and clears out the skies, and scattered thunderstorms affect the more southerly locales of Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, and the southern Philippines.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap

33

91 33 91 Mostly fair

Partly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

33

91 32 90 Mostly fair

Partly cloudy

Manila

31

88 31 88 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Davao City

32

90 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Brunei

32

90 32 90 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Singapore

30

86 31 86 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

 

TROPICS

TAAG, 24 DEC

TYPHOON 30W NOCK-TEN now a typhoon at category 2 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale…forecasts show southern Luzon landfall during the evening on Christmas…

TYPHOON 30W NOCK-TEN (Nina) continues to strengthen as it moves towards the Philippines. At 5am PST, J.T.W.C placed the center near 13.1N, 129.0E, or about 517km (321mi) east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay, Philippines. The system is moving west-northwest at 9 knots (17kph).

Latest official forecast tracks bring the system into southern Luzon on Christmas day, while strength estimates on landfall between J.T.W.C. and J.M.A. are a bit different.

J.T.W.C. is showing a system with peak sustained winds of 130kt (241kph) early Christmas morning, a “violent typhoon” on the J.M.A. scale, or, a strong CAT 4 equivalent super-typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with landfall strength near 110kt (204kph).

J.M.A. is showing a system with peak sustained winds of 100kt (185kph) early Christmas morning, a “very strong typhoon” on the J.M.A. scale, or, a moderate CAT 3 equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with landfall strength near 100kt (185kph).

JTWC and JMA forecasts, 24 DEC

PAGASA has issued the following PSWS signals:

SIGNAL #1- Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Catanduanes, Sorsogon and Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Northern Samar and Eastern Samar

PSWS, 24 DEC

Residents of the eastern Philippines, from the northern Visayas to central Luzon, and particularly the Bicol region of Luzon, should have FINISHED initial preparations for a significant weather system, should FINISH secondary preparations and begin FINAL PREPARATIONS for this system today.

Residents of south-central Luzon in Quezon, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Cavite, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, and Zambales provinces, including Manila, should be finishing initial preparations today and should begin secondary and final preparations now.

This means stocking up on water and non-perishable foods, LPG for cooking, and planning an evacuation route if you feel it may be necessary. Fuel your vehicles, start bringing in and/or securing any outside objects that can become dangerous wind-driven projectiles. Taping or boarding of windows may be necessary. Buy batteries for flashlights and acquire candles for emergency lighting.

IF YOU LIVE WITHIN 5 KM OF THE EASTERN OR NORTHERN FACING SHORELINES NEAR TO, AND NORTH OF, THE POINT OF LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LUZON, YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.

WESTERN FACING SHORES OF WESTERN LUZON SOUTH OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER CAN ALSO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE EVENT. THIS INFORMATION WILL NOT BE CLEAR UNTIL THE STORM IS VERY CLOSE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK, THEREFORE, IF YOU LIVE ALONG THESE DESCRIBED SHORELINES, YOU SHOULD EITHER MAKE PREPARATIONS, OF EVACUATE TO INLAND LOCATIONS.

Better preparation is the key, and with the holiday approaching, one may tend to be lax or even discount the threat.

The current official tracks show the system to enter southeastern Luzon at or near Catanduanes Island early in the evening on December 25th, quickly crossing south-central Luzon near Manila, exiting into the South China Sea somewhere between the provinces of Zambales and Cavite in the afternoon of December 26.

However, due to the storm’s proximity to the Bicol peninsula extension of Luzon, effects will start to be felt in that region starting early morning Christmas Day.

Forecasts will change due to the evolving atmospheric conditions, so all areas mentioned previously should monitor the progress of this system.

The remainder of the tropics region will see a warm and mostly wet weekend, as deep tropical moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sunshine each day.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Guam

28

82 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Partly cloudy

Yap

29

84 30 86 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Palau

29

84 29 84 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Chuuk

28

82 29 84 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Pohnpei

28

82 30 86 Sctd. t-storms

Partly cloudy

Majuro

30

86 28 82 Sctd t-storms

Thunderstorms

Wake

27

81 27 81 Partly cloudy

Sctd. showers

 

Have a wonderful weekend and Merry Christmas!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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