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TYPHOON NOCK-TEN LEAVES PHILIPPINES, WEAKENS EAST OF LUZON

December 26, 2016 by robertspeta 0 Comments

At least 3 confirmed deaths but possibly more have been reported as of Tuesday morning due to Typhoon Nock-ten after it rolled over the Philippines on Christmas weekend.

Impressively there was not any more deaths from this storm for a few reasons. The big one was the fact it hit over the holiday weekend, a time when many people were just not paying attention to the news or if they were then were just straight up ignoring it and going on with Christmas plans. But what took place ahead of it may have saved hundreds of lives, mass forced evacuations by people actually going to low lying communities and forcing people to get out ahead of the storm.

This is fantastic news and truly represents the scope of change since Typhoon Haiyan just 4 years ago.

There still will be a road to recovery though, the worst hit areas of Camarines Sur seen about 60% of the local infrastucutre destroyed with most of the area losing power. Now emergency officials are working to get things back up and running but as always this is going to take some time.

Also good news is the storm tracked further south missing the highly populated city of Manila out of the worst of the storm. I am sure attitude this morning on this storm would be vastly different if it had actually rolled over that metro with 9 million plus people.

JTWC TRACK

Where is the storm now..

Now it is in a heavy weight boxing match with the North East Monsoon and losing. Dry air, and high wind shear will force Nock-ten (Nina) to continue to weaken over the next 48hrs eventually becoming a tropical depression over the south china sea. Great news for Vietnam and Cambodia who have been watching this storm in fear of a repeat of what we seen in the Philippines. For now though that does not look like it will happen.

Personal note:

Big thanks to the entire westpacwx crew and community for all the information put out during this storm. I personally already had plans over the holidays in Japan and was unable to write updates or put out videos. If it not for the team here and the fb page PTS I am sure this avenue of information would have not been available. I do hope it continues to stay that way though and helps more people out in the future.

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Daily weather brief – Monday, December 26, 2016

December 26, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 26 DEC

NORTH

A new surge of Siberian air is pushing through the north region today with a storms system located in northern Hokkaido, and the associated frontal system stretching back to the west across the Korean Peninsula and northeastern China. Temperatures behind the front are significantly cooler, while locations out ahead of the front are cool but bearable. Clouds and showers will keep it dreary along the frontal boundary in southeastern Russia, Korea, and Japan, and a few showers ahead of the front will dampen spirits across eastern China.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Ulaanbaatar	-19	-28	-2	-18	Mostly fair
Vladivostok	-2	-19	28	-2	Mostly cloudy
Beijing	3	-7	37	19	Mostly cloudy
Seoul	4	-4	39	25	Mostly cloudy
Tokyo	12	11	54	52	Mostly cloudy
Shanghai	12	4	54	39	Scattered showers likely

CENTRAL

Temperatures are rebounding across the central region, ahead off the next surge to move down later this week. Skies will be mostly clear across southeastern China, Taiwan, and the Ryukyu Islands, and a few scattered clouds will appear over the higher terrain of south-central China. Scattered showers are likely over portions of southern China and northern Indochina as lingering moisture remains. Temperatures region-wide will be warm, but comfortable.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Kunming	17	4	63	39	Partly cloudy
Hong Kong	26	15	79	59	Mostly fair
Taipei	28	17	82	63	Mostly fair
Naha	24	20	75	68	Mostly fair
Hanoi	27	16	81	61	Scattered showers likely

SOUTH

Residents of the Philippines are picking up the pieces left behind by what was super typhoon NOCK-TEN (Nina). The storm system continues to batter portions of southern Luzon today as it moves westward towards its demise in the South China Sea later this week. For more on this system, please check out the “tropics” section of this briefing. Elsewhere across the region, the latest surge of continental air has settled over much of Indochina, bringing about a fair weather scenario, while deep tropical moisture remains over the more southerly locales, offering up a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Siem Reap	33	22	91	72	Partly cloudy
Ho Chi Minh	32	23	90	73	Partly cloudy
Manila	29	26	84	79	TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
Davao City	31	24	88	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei	32	24	90	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Singapore	31	24	88	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible

TROPICS

TYPHOON 30W NOCK-TEN continues to weaken as it traverses southern Batangas province in the Philippines…forecast tracks take the storm well south of Manila…

TYPHOON 30W NOCK-TEN (Nina) continues to weaken as it tracks in a westerly direction. At 9:30am PST, J.T.W.C placed the center near 13.8N 120.9E, approximately 67nm (124km) south-southeast of Manila, Philippines, and is moving westward at 15kt (28kph).

Latest official forecast tracks bring the system into southern Batangas province later this afternoon, exiting the country near Nasugbu, Batangas this evening.

J.T.W.C. and J.M.A. are showing the system continues to decline in strength with J.T.W.C. assessing sustained winds of 100kt (185kph), a “very strong typhoon” on the J.M.A. scale, or, a moderate CAT 2 equivalent tropical system on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while J.M.A. assesses the storm’s current strength near 85kt (157kph), a “very strong typhoon” on the J.M.A. scale, or, a weak CAT 2 equivalent tropical system on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

As of 8am, PAGASA had the following PSWS signals in place:

SIGNAL #3 (Winds of 121 -170 kph is expected in at least 18 hrs)-

Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Batangas, Northern Oriental Mindoro, Lubang Island, Cavite and Laguna

SIGNAL #2 (61-120kph expected in 24 hrs)-

Metro Manila, Rizal, Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Bulacan, Bataan, Pampanga, Southern Zambales, Rest of Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Northern Occidental Mindoro, Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur

SIGNAL #1 – (30-60kph expected in 36 hrs)

30W TCWS, 08PST 26 DEC

The rest of Occidental Mindoro, rest of Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Southern Aurora, Pangasinan, Albay and Burias Island

Residents of southern Luzon and northwestern Visayas, particularly Marinduque, all of Mindoro, Batangas, southern Quezon, southern Laguna, and southern Cavite provinces should have FINISHED all preparations for a significant weather system.

Better preparation is the key, and with the holiday atmosphere, one may tend to be lax or even discount the threat.

The current official tracks show the system to enter southern Luzon in southern Batangas province this afternoon quickly crossing southern Luzon over the region, exiting into the South China Sea near Nasugbu, Batangas later this evening.

Forecasts will change due to the evolving atmospheric conditions, so all areas mentioned previously should monitor the progress of this system.

Elsewhere across the tropics, partly cloudy skies will prevail over the more northerly locations within the region, while locations to the south and east can expect a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Guam	30	26	86	79	Partly cloudy
Yap	29	26	84	79	Partly cloudy
Palau	32	26	90	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Chuuk	31	27	88	81	Partly cloudy
Pohnpei	28	26	82	79	Thunderstorms possible
Majuro	28	26	82	79	Thunderstorms possible
Wake	28	24	82	75	Partly cloudy

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

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DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

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Weekend weather brief – December 24/25, 2016

December 24, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 24-25 DEC

NORTH

Temperatures are cold across the northern half of the north region, courtesy of the latest surge to move into the area. The associated storm system is pushing offshore of northern japan today with a cold front sweeping through the archipelago from north to south. Most of the moisture and inclement weather is associated directly with the strong low pressure area; however, sea-effect snowfall will be prevalent across the western shores and higher terrain of Hokkaido and northern Honshu. High pressure is building in behind the storm system and is bringing clearing conditions across much of the continent, except for portions of eastern China where the frontal system and moisture coming in from the west will keep skies grey and showery.

City	Sat High C F		Sun High C F		Conditions Sat Sun
Ulaanbaatar	-12	10	-18	0	Mostly cloudy	Mostly fair
Vladivostok	-6	21	-4	25	Partly cloudy	Mostly fair
Beijing	4	39	3	37	Mostly fair	Mostly cloudy
Seoul	2	36	8	46	Partly cloudy	Mostly fair
Tokyo	11	52	11	52	Mostly fair	Partly cloudy
Xi’an	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Shanghai	11	52	16	61	Mostly cloudy	Sctd. showers

CENTRAL

Temperatures across the central region will rebound a bit through the weekend as warmer air advects northward ahead of the surge to the north. A few showers will fall across portions of southeastern China and Taiwan today, and skies will remain cloudy over the Ryukyu Islands through the weekend. Temperatures will remain comfortably mild across the region, with the warmest readings to the south.

City	Sat High C F		Sun High C F		Conditions Sat Sun
Kunming	16	61	17	63	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy
Hong Kong	20	68	23	73	Sctd. showers	Partly cloudy
Taipei	21	70	24	75	Sctd. showers	Partly cloudy
Naha	20	68	22	72	Mostly cloudy	Mostly cloudy
Hanoi	24	75	27	81	Fog/low clouds	Partly cloudy

SOUTH

Residents of the Philippines are watching the developments of typhoon NOCK-TEN, also named “Nina” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, as it continues to strengthen and move towards the northern half of the archipelago. Storm warning signals have been issued for parts of southeastern Luzon by PAGASA as the storm bears down on the region. For more information on this system, please refer to the “tropics” section of this briefing.

The remainder of the region will enjoy a rather warm, but pleasant, weekend as drier air infiltrates Indochina and clears out the skies, and scattered thunderstorms affect the more southerly locales of Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, and the southern Philippines.

City	Sat High C F		Sun High C F		Conditions Sat Sun
Siem Reap	33	91	33	91	Mostly fair	Partly cloudy
Ho Chi Minh	33	91	32	90	Mostly fair	Partly cloudy
Manila	31	88	31	88	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy
Davao City	32	90	31	88	Sctd. t-storms	Sctd. t-storms
Brunei	32	90	32	90	Sctd. t-storms	Thunderstorms
Singapore	30	86	31	86	Thunderstorms	Sctd. t-storms

TROPICS

TAAG, 24 DEC

TYPHOON 30W NOCK-TEN now a typhoon at category 2 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale…forecasts show southern Luzon landfall during the evening on Christmas…

TYPHOON 30W NOCK-TEN (Nina) continues to strengthen as it moves towards the Philippines. At 5am PST, J.T.W.C placed the center near 13.1N, 129.0E, or about 517km (321mi) east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay, Philippines. The system is moving west-northwest at 9 knots (17kph).

Latest official forecast tracks bring the system into southern Luzon on Christmas day, while strength estimates on landfall between J.T.W.C. and J.M.A. are a bit different.

J.T.W.C. is showing a system with peak sustained winds of 130kt (241kph) early Christmas morning, a “violent typhoon” on the J.M.A. scale, or, a strong CAT 4 equivalent super-typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with landfall strength near 110kt (204kph).

J.M.A. is showing a system with peak sustained winds of 100kt (185kph) early Christmas morning, a “very strong typhoon” on the J.M.A. scale, or, a moderate CAT 3 equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with landfall strength near 100kt (185kph).

JTWC and JMA forecasts, 24 DEC

PAGASA has issued the following PSWS signals:

SIGNAL #1- Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Catanduanes, Sorsogon and Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Northern Samar and Eastern Samar

PSWS, 24 DEC

Residents of the eastern Philippines, from the northern Visayas to central Luzon, and particularly the Bicol region of Luzon, should have FINISHED initial preparations for a significant weather system, should FINISH secondary preparations and begin FINAL PREPARATIONS for this system today.

Residents of south-central Luzon in Quezon, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Cavite, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, and Zambales provinces, including Manila, should be finishing initial preparations today and should begin secondary and final preparations now.

This means stocking up on water and non-perishable foods, LPG for cooking, and planning an evacuation route if you feel it may be necessary. Fuel your vehicles, start bringing in and/or securing any outside objects that can become dangerous wind-driven projectiles. Taping or boarding of windows may be necessary. Buy batteries for flashlights and acquire candles for emergency lighting.

IF YOU LIVE WITHIN 5 KM OF THE EASTERN OR NORTHERN FACING SHORELINES NEAR TO, AND NORTH OF, THE POINT OF LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LUZON, YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.

WESTERN FACING SHORES OF WESTERN LUZON SOUTH OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER CAN ALSO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE EVENT. THIS INFORMATION WILL NOT BE CLEAR UNTIL THE STORM IS VERY CLOSE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK, THEREFORE, IF YOU LIVE ALONG THESE DESCRIBED SHORELINES, YOU SHOULD EITHER MAKE PREPARATIONS, OF EVACUATE TO INLAND LOCATIONS.

Better preparation is the key, and with the holiday approaching, one may tend to be lax or even discount the threat.

The current official tracks show the system to enter southeastern Luzon at or near Catanduanes Island early in the evening on December 25th, quickly crossing south-central Luzon near Manila, exiting into the South China Sea somewhere between the provinces of Zambales and Cavite in the afternoon of December 26.

However, due to the storm’s proximity to the Bicol peninsula extension of Luzon, effects will start to be felt in that region starting early morning Christmas Day.

Forecasts will change due to the evolving atmospheric conditions, so all areas mentioned previously should monitor the progress of this system.

The remainder of the tropics region will see a warm and mostly wet weekend, as deep tropical moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sunshine each day.

City	Sat High C F		Sun High C F		Conditions Sat Sun
Guam	28	82	31	88	Sctd. t-storms	Partly cloudy
Yap	29	84	30	86	Sctd. t-storms	Sctd. t-storms
Palau	29	84	29	84	Sctd. t-storms	Sctd. t-storms
Chuuk	28	82	29	84	Thunderstorms	Thunderstorms
Pohnpei	28	82	30	86	Sctd. t-storms	Partly cloudy
Majuro	30	86	28	82	Sctd t-storms	Thunderstorms
Wake	27	81	27	81	Partly cloudy	Sctd. showers

Have a wonderful weekend and Merry Christmas!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

==================================================================

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By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.
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Daily weather brief – Friday, December 23, 2016

December 23, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 23 DEC

NORTH

A surge of cold Siberian air is sliding east-southeast through the north region, and is the harbinger of an even colder air mass that will arrive early next week. The latest storm system associated with the surge is making its way offshore of Japan, with a strong low situated near northeastern Hokkaido. Skies will be cloudy across Southeastern Russia, northeastern China, the Korean peninsula, and northern Japan and a few snow showers and flurries are possible across these areas, especially to the east. Sea-effect snow is likely across northern and central japan as well as high pressure builds in and brings a strong northwesterly wind across the relatively warm waters of the Sea of Japan. Temperatures across continental areas of the northern half of the region will be near, or below, 0C (32F) today, with areas to the south and east seeing readings in the teens. Tokyo will see record warmth today ahead of frontal passage later tonight, when temperatures will drop significantly.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Ulaanbaatar	-14	-24	7	-11	Partly cloudy
Vladivostok	-9	-17	16	1	Mostly cloudy/Snow flurries
Beijing	3	-5	37	23	Partly cloudy
Seoul	-1	-6	30	21	Mostly cloudy/Snow flurries
Tokyo	17	7	63	45	Mostly fair
Xi’an	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Shanghai	11	3	52	37	Fog and low clouds

CENTRAL

The latest frontal system to pass through the central region has cleared things out quite nicely, leaving behind a refreshing shot of cooler and drier air over the region. Temperatures will be down slightly over readings from the past few days, with only portions of southern china and northern Indochina seeing an increase as warm air from the south advects northward a bit. Aside from a few showers over the higher terrain of south-central China, skies will be partly cloudy region-wide.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Kunming	15	8	59	47	Scattered showers possible
Hong Kong	23	18	73	64	Partly cloudy
Taipei	19	16	66	61	Partly cloudy
Naha	20	16	68	61	Partly cloudy
Hanoi	26	18	79	64	Partly cloudy

SOUTH

All attention in the south, and especially the Philippines, is focused on the progress of tropical storm NOCK-TEN, also named “Nina” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA. This storm looks to bring quite a hit to the most populated area of the country late this weekend and early next week. For more on this system, please see the ‘tropics” section of this briefing. Drier air has settled into much of the northern half of the south region, especially over Indochina and the northern half of the Philippines, keeping skies clear to partly cloudy. Tropical moisture remains over the southern half of the region, where a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms could pop up during the peak of daytime heating. Temperatures will remain warm, with most locations seeing readings in the low 30’s C (near 90F).

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Siem Reap	32	22	90	72	Mostly fair
Ho Chi Minh	33	23	91	73	Partly cloudy
Manila	31	24	88	75	Mostly fair
Davao City	32	24	90	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei	31	24	88	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Singapore	31	24	88	75	Thunderstorms possible

TROPICS

Tropical storm 30W NOCK-TEN continues to increase strength…has entered the P.A.R. (Philippine Area of Responsibility) and has been named “Nina” by PAGASA…forecasts show southern Luzon landfall during the early morning hours of December 26th…

TAAG, 23 DEC

30W NOCK-TEN (Nina) continues to strengthen as it moves towards the Philippines. At 5am PST, J.T.W.C placed the center near 10.9N, 135.0E, or about 1251km (777mi) east-southeast of Legazpi City, Albay, Philippines. The system is moving west-northwest at 18 knots (33kph). Latest official forecast tracks bring the system into southern Luzon on Christmas day and strength estimates on landfall between J.T.W.C. and J.M.A now agree. J.T.W.C. and J.M.A. are showing a system with peak sustained winds of 105kt (194kph) early Christmas morning, a “violent typhoon” on the J.M.A. scale, or, a moderate CAT 3 equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with landfall strength near 100kt (185kph).

Residents of the eastern Philippines, from the northern Visayas to central Luzon, and particularly the Bicol region of Luzon, should have begun initial preparations for a significant weather system, and should begin secondary preparations as soon as possible. This means stocking up on water and non-perishable foods, LPG for cooking, and planning an evacuation route if you feel it may be necessary. Fuel your vehicles, start bringing in and/or securing any outside objects that can become dangerous wind-driven projectiles. Taping or boarding of windows may be necessary, and these efforts should be done on places of interest that will not be occupied during the storm, such as a place of business or an extra building/garage. Better preparation is the key, and with the holiday approaching, one may tend to be lax or even discount the threat.

The current official tracks show the system to enter south-central Luzon in Quezon province early in the morning on December 26th, quickly crossing south-central Luzon just north of Manila, exiting into the South China Sea in the province of Zambales on the evening of December 26. However, due to the storm’s proximity to the Bicol peninsula extension of Luzon, effects will start to be felt in that region starting early morning Christmas Day. Forecasts will change due to the evolving atmospheric conditions, so all areas mentioned previously should monitor the progress of this system.

Elsewhere across the tropics, plenty of latent moisture remains over much of the region, so afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely, especially over western locales. The tail end of a continental surge will help bring some showers to Wake Island today, while temperatures across the region are indicative of the minimal sun angle and intrusions of cooler air from the north, settling in near the upper20’s C (mid-upper 80’s F).

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Guam	29	26	84	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Yap	30	26	86	79	Thunderstorms possible
Palau	29	26	84	79	Thunderstorms possible
Chuuk	31	26	88	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Pohnpei	29	26	84	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Majuro	29	27	84	81	Thunderstorms possible
Wake	28	24	82	75	Scattered showers likely

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

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