Archive | January, 2017

DAILY WEATHER UPDATE FEBRUARY 1ST

Its Wednesday the 1st of February and we are now in what some consider the start of the end of winter. In other words the light at the end of the tunnel heading in to spring may be breaking peaking in soon. But that does not mean winter is over yet by any means. In fact this week another winter snow storm will roll over Japan bringing yet more and more snowfall to ski country across much of Honshu.

 

Meanwhile the latest cold surge keeps the NE Monsoon in charge of the sub-tropics and a small tropical low is keeping our attention south of Guam.

 

North

 

A small but potent low is now cruising on shore across the Tohoku region of Japan kicking off another sea effect snow storm which is forecasted to bring over 40cm of accumulation to the mountains of central and northern Honshu through Thursday morning. Overall the snow is forecasted to continue in to Friday.  Even for those on the pacific coast of Japan where no snow is in the forecast (Including Tokyo) the temperatures will plunge through the rest of week to below zero figures through the overnight hours.

The image below really shows you how strong north winds are producing the cooling temperatures via the Von Karmen Vort depicted.

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Things stay dry further west in to Korea and Northern China but the temperatures remain on the chilly side. Another problem in northern China will continue to be the chance of smog as a potent high pressure dominates the area creating light winds and suppressing the dispersal of PM 2.5 particles. With the Lunar New Year still taking place fire works being launched could add to this problem.

 

MIDDLE

 

The cold in the north is keeping things cool but wet in the central areas, specifically for those in South East China.  Naha (Okinawa) is forecasted to see cloudy conditions and maybe light drizzle but the heavier of the rain will remain further south. Temperatures will range between the upper teens C (low 60’s F) over the higher terrain of the region to the mid 20’s C (upper 70’s F) in the south.

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South    Further South the North East Monsoon is the main player in the weather game.  There will be some scattered showers on the leading edge of the monsoon in north east Luzon along with gusty winds.  PAGASA has stated that any one venturing out in to the seas in these areas could experience moderate to rough conditions.   The invest area that was near Malaysia has since been dropped as well as dry air and the north east monsoon tear that elongated trough apart.

 area

Tropics

 

Another area of moisture we are watching is south of Guam. Mike mentioned this yesterday in his tropical update so I do advise to check that out. Right now models are not very excited about it but still heading in to the weekend it would not surprise me for JMA to put a minor TD out in the Philippines Sea. NOT A TYPHOON. But still something that would be worth watching over the coming days.

Daily Weather Brief – January 31st (New Format)

Michael for the a unknown amount of time will be unable to do the daily weather brief due to personal reasons. So I will try my best to take up the reigns on the daily update. Do note it will be in a different format and more or less a quick break down of everything going on across the western Pacific. The city by city forecast will no longer be available as I assume most people use their phones and website apps for that. (Plus it takes some time) If anyone objects to the new format please let me know and Ill try my best to keep it the same way Michael has had it.

January 31st

North

 

Following record warmth across Japan on Monday where Tokyo actually hit the 20 degree mark about 11 degrees above average for this time of year things are now starting to get a little back to normal. A new cold surge has set up ushering colder temperatures and strong northerly winds across the country.

 

Where this cold air is coming from is in Northern China where temperatures dropped well below freezing for the entire region on Monday, in Seoul the high was only around -2C indicating that even though there was a short burst of warmth things are still very Winter like.

Central

 

The cold in the north is keeping things cool but wet in the central areas. From South East China through the southern islands of Japan scattered showers and cooling temperatures are in the forecast. Specifically south of Shanghai through northern Taiwan and in to Ishigaki today.

 

Naha (Okinawa) is forecasted to see cloudy conditions and maybe light drizzle but the heavier of the rain will remain further south. Temperatures will range between the upper teens C (low 60’s F) over the higher terrain of the region to the mid 20’s C (upper 70’s F) in the south.

 

South

 

Further South the North East Monsoon is the main player in the weather game.  There will be some scattered showers on the leading edge of the monsoon in north east Luzon along with gusty winds.  PAGASA has stated that any one venturing out in to the seas in these areas could experience moderate to rough conditions.

 

Meanwhile the plume of moisture that impacted the Philippines over the weekend is now creeping east and is bringing scattered showers to Malaysia and Eastern Thailand.

Tropics

 

LATER THIS WEEK there is a weak LPA we are watching east of the Philippines that could bring additional rainfall. Right now this is shown on the satellite picture as a weak blob of moisture but I feel it warrants a little bit of watching so lets keep a close eye on it.

 

Guam is sitting under a nice dominant Westpac high, so for now Michael and any one else on the island is enjoying some sunny skies and hopefully soaking in the rays. Have a great Tuesday everyone!

 

 

 

DEADLY FLOODS CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES

Forced evacuations are in place in parts of Northern Mindanao including Cagayan de Oro following days of heavy rains in the flood prone city.  Two casualties have been reported due to the rising waters in the region, one in Cebu and one in Cagayan.

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Red alerts are still in place for Misamis Oriental province in northern Mindanao as the rain continues today due to a persistent shear line combined with the remnants of a weak low pressure area over the central and southern Philippines.

 

This means all school and many businesses in Cagayan de Oro will remain closed through Tuesday and probably through Wednesday as the rain is forecasted to continue in the area.

cebu

Is it a tropical system?

 

Yes and no, what we are seeing is a wave of energy that started east of the Philippines work its way in to Visayas over the weekend. At the same time a cold surge blasted south crashing in to this wave forcing rapid uplift and severe thunderstorms to line up across the Philippines.

rainfall

As the surge pushed south it forced the shear line south as well, this is why the flooding originally started in Cebu and then worked its way in to Mindanao. At this time the forecast does not look promising, the overall intensity of the showers should taper off through mid week but the north east monsoon will continue to created scattered rainfall through the rest of the week in southern Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Something this area indeed does not need more of.

 

Check out this facebook group post showing some of the flood damage we have been seeing in the area.

Cagayan is known for being flood prone. In 2011 Tropical Storm Washi killed over 1,000 people but possibly up to 2,500 after heavy rains surged in the city forcing the Cagayan river to over flow its banks.

 

SNOW STORM CONTINUES OVER JAPAN, END BY MID-WEEK

Its Monday morning and the start of the work week for many residents of Japan is a slow and rough one. Over the past 72hrs over a meter of snowfall was seen across the mountains of central Honshu snowing in residents or at least making Monday mornings commute a rough slow go. For those at ski resorts to start off the week, well enjoy the calmer slopes and deep powder. Be extra careful though as this fun graphic from Hakuba Cortina shows. 

cortina

More so in Hiroshima where up to 19cm of snow depth is being seen on the ground Monday morning, this is the deepest in over 3 decades for the Western Japan city. As it may be less than other parts of the country this area is less equipped to handle it thus leaving it worst off.

hiro

Meanwhile in Kyoto on Sunday the city’s annual Marathon was run in a blizzard, despite the cold windy conditions the visibility was also reduced to less than 50 meters at times making for rough spectating as well as the horrible running conditions.

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Deep DEEP snow is being reported across central Honshu as well today. Just looking up on twitter you can find endless videos and photos showing just how deep it is. The one below from a professional skier getting stuck while moving DOWNHILL on a slope in Japan.

 

Overall the snow depth has eclipsed the century mark over the past few days in numerous cities of Hokoriku and parts of the Kanto-koshin region. In Nozawa Onsen over 130cm was reported on the ground Monday morning.

depth

In the video on this page I put in a few photos from Nozawa Onsen.

THE FORECAST

Is what is on everyone’s mind, well more snow is expected through Tuesday. The heaviest will be in Hokoriku where an additional 80cm of accumulation is expected. I know for many they are happy the deep snow returned after the anomaly last season but I think this persistant weather pattern is starting to get old and maybe a few people in the mountains would enjoy some UV rays from the big fireball in the sky for once.

snowforecast

It looks like that will be the case heading in to Tuesday Evening and through Wednesday and Thursday for central Japan. The same blocking weather pattern that has been dominating for the past week will give way to high pressure.

Do note this may not last that long, and by the time Friday and the weekend come around another migratory low will move over Japan setting up another round of snowfall.  I will post a little more detail on this next storm by mid-week. For now just know next weekend could over another round of snow.

TOKYO

Monday evening could offer one or two flakes over the city, but nothing really special or crazy. Just for those who are in the city and want to see some sort of frozen precipitation. It will be spotty though so do not place any bets on catching flakes after sunset.