Its Wednesday the 1st of February and we are now in what some consider the start of the end of winter. In other words the light at the end of the tunnel heading in to spring may be breaking peaking in soon. But that does not mean winter is over yet by any means. In fact this week another winter snow storm will roll over Japan bringing yet more and more snowfall to ski country across much of Honshu.
Meanwhile the latest cold surge keeps the NE Monsoon in charge of the sub-tropics and a small tropical low is keeping our attention south of Guam.
A small but potent low is now cruising on shore across the Tohoku region of Japan kicking off another sea effect snow storm which is forecasted to bring over 40cm of accumulation to the mountains of central and northern Honshu through Thursday morning. Overall the snow is forecasted to continue in to Friday. Even for those on the pacific coast of Japan where no snow is in the forecast (Including Tokyo) the temperatures will plunge through the rest of week to below zero figures through the overnight hours.
The image below really shows you how strong north winds are producing the cooling temperatures via the Von Karmen Vort depicted.
Things stay dry further west in to Korea and Northern China but the temperatures remain on the chilly side. Another problem in northern China will continue to be the chance of smog as a potent high pressure dominates the area creating light winds and suppressing the dispersal of PM 2.5 particles. With the Lunar New Year still taking place fire works being launched could add to this problem.
The cold in the north is keeping things cool but wet in the central areas, specifically for those in South East China. Naha (Okinawa) is forecasted to see cloudy conditions and maybe light drizzle but the heavier of the rain will remain further south. Temperatures will range between the upper teens C (low 60’s F) over the higher terrain of the region to the mid 20’s C (upper 70’s F) in the south.
South Further South the North East Monsoon is the main player in the weather game. There will be some scattered showers on the leading edge of the monsoon in north east Luzon along with gusty winds. PAGASA has stated that any one venturing out in to the seas in these areas could experience moderate to rough conditions. The invest area that was near Malaysia has since been dropped as well as dry air and the north east monsoon tear that elongated trough apart.
Another area of moisture we are watching is south of Guam. Mike mentioned this yesterday in his tropical update so I do advise to check that out. Right now models are not very excited about it but still heading in to the weekend it would not surprise me for JMA to put a minor TD out in the Philippines Sea. NOT A TYPHOON. But still something that would be worth watching over the coming days.