Archive | January 1, 2017

Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology – January

January Tropical Cyclone Tracks – Japan Meteorological Agency Best Track (1951-2016)
Cyan dots denote winds 65 to 115 km/h.

Happy New Year and welcome to a new month. Climatologically speaking, January tends to be a quiet month for the Western Pacific basin. Over the 66 years of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) best track data, a tropical cyclone exists in the month of January roughly once every two years (0.55 per year). This includes tropical cyclones that formed in December, but persisted into the month of January. In 2016, no tropical cyclones existed in January while 2015 featured Severe Tropical Storm Mekkhala (Amang in the Philippines). Within the best track data, no tropical cyclones reached typhoon-strength.

The hot spots for activity are along the eastern bounds of the Philippine Area of Responsibility and near the western Caroline Islands, to include Palau and Yap state of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM).  To a lesser extent are the Philippines, with the bulk of activity focused on the Visayas and MIMAROPA regions.  That said, risk on an annual basis is very low as this is the quiet time of the year.  Tropical cyclones within a 200 km radius of the aforementioned landmasses occur roughly once per decade.  Below is a statistical average of tropical cyclones to affect a region per year based on the JMA best track data, in no particular order.

  • MIMAROPA, Philippines — 0.08 / yr
  • Southeast Luzon, Philippines — 0.06 / yr
  • Visayas, Philippines — 0.09 / yr
  • Mindanao, Philippines — 0.06 / yr
  • Palau — 0.11 / yr
  • Yap, FSM — 0.15 / yr
  • Guam — 0.09 /yr

No tropical cyclones are recorded to have made landfall elsewhere in the Asian continent, to include the Indochina peninsula, China, Taiwan, the Korean peninsula, and Japan.

Bottom line, it should be quiet for the month, but never let your guard down.  It only takes one storm to cause a disaster, so be prepared!  -Mike

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By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2017 Westernpacificweather.com

Results of the WPACWX 2016 Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Seasons predictions

2016 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season Predictions

** THE RESULTS **

Earlier last year, the team at WesternPacificWeather.com put our heads together and came up with our outlooks on the 2016 season. At that time things were very quiet, and we were bored while we waited on the first storm to form. Well, it did, as did many others, and it turned out to be a pretty active year in the WPAC, but still about average. Here’s how we did on our predictions!

Overall, most of us saw a “less-than-typical” year shaping up as we headed into the season, due in large part to the relaxation of the Strong El Nino event of 2015, and hints of a developing La Nina ahead. The La Nina did not quite develop to the levels that were expected, which lent a hand into keeping the tropical weather numbers near climatological norms.

Let’s see how the guys broke down the 2016 Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Season… 

 

Team member

TS

TY

STY

Accur. Rate (%)*

Meteorologist Robert Speta

25 (-1)

16 (+3)

6 (0)

96/81/100-   92.3%
Meteorologist Mike Adcock

24 (-2)

11 (-2)

3 (-3)

92/84/50-     75.3%
Weathercaster Patrick Malejana

22 (-4)

12 (-1)

4 (-2)

84/92/67-     81.0%
Weathercaster Michael Williams

21 (-5)

10 (-3)

4 (-2)

80/77/67-     74.6%
Climatological Average

26

16

9

100/81/67- 82.6%
WPACWX.com average

23 (-3)

12 (-1)

4 (-2)

88/92/67-   82.3%
Actual 2016 Totals (unofficial)

26

13

6

***************

 

* Denotes departure from actual totals

The accuracy rate is quite unscientific, simply averaging out the prediction/actual average for each prediction category (TS, TY, STY) regardless of direction, and then averaging out the totals.

The results…

Meteorologist Robert Speta was our most accurate prognosticator, with an average accuracy rate of 92.3% overall. He was only -1 on his prediction for the tropical storm outlook, was a bit higher at +3 on his view of typhoon formation potential, and was dead-on with his call for 6 super typhoons on the year.

Weathercaster Patrick Malejana was next best in average accuracy with a rate of 81.0%. He underestimated the general level of activity of the season, with the tropical storm outlook missed by -4, but made up ground by only being -1 on typhoon formation potential, and -2 on super typhoon expectations.

Meteorologist Mike Adcock was next with an average accuracy rating of 75.3%. Mike’s also underestimated the activity level of the season in general, as his overall outlook trended lower than the actual figures, with his tropical storm outlook at -2, typhoon formation potential at -2, and super typhoon expectations at -3.

Finally, Weather caster Michael Williams finished last in the group with an average accuracy rate of 74.6%. Michael also underestimated the overall level of the 2016 season, missing the tropical storm outlook by -5, typhoon formation potential by -3, and super typhoon expectations at -2.

Overall, the WPACWX.com team finished with an overall average of 82.3%, with a general underestimation of the level of 2016 tropical cyclone activity. We missed the tropical storm outlook by -3, the typhoon potential by -2, and the super typhoon expectations by -1.

Thus ends the 2016 Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Season, and overall, we think we did pretty well. Congratulations to our Robert Speta, and stay tuned, because our outlook for the 2017 season will be here before you know it!

Here’s a little bit about each of the prognosticators:

Meteorologist Robert Speta is a Broadcast/Operational Meteorologist and the creator of westernpacificweather.com. He has eight years of Operational Meteorology experience in the United States Navy and is currently on air casting the weather for international news network NHK World. Robert is also a member of the American Meteorological Society.

Meteorologist Mike Adcock is an Operational Meteorologist with 16 years of experience in the United States Air Force.  During that time, Mike has forecasted weather in six of seven continents with a focus on aviation meteorology.  Currently, he is working toward a MS Geosciences degree from Mississippi State.  Mike has also been a member of the American Meteorological Society since December 2010.


WeatherCaster Patrick Malejana is based in Long Island, NY where he is working as an Operations Administrator with a private jet charter company.  Pat lived in the Philippines for 15 years and frequent typhoons hitting the country got him interested with meteorology. Pat has a B.S. in Aerospace Systems Technology.

WeatherCaster Michael Williams is a long-time veteran of radio, where he has been a news director and anchor for several stations for the majority of his career. Being born in the sub-tropical region of the USA, Michael became interested in tropical weather at a very early age, spending many years in self-study of tropical cyclones and related phenomena. Now living in the Philippines, Michael lends his talents in public information delivery to the website and on Facebook for residents of the Western Pacific. 

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Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2017 Westernpacificweather.com

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 1 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: Minor disturbance southeast of Mindanao expected to bring showers to Mindanao and portions of Indonesia.

Tropical Analysis – 1 January 2017 0300 UTC



Current Storms: None

5-Day Tropical Discussion: Invest 94W remains at a very low latitude—around 2.5°N—and is centered approximately 800 km southeast of General Santos City, Sarangani, Philippines. Convection with this disturbance remains unorganized and the surface circulation is elongated west-to-east. Expect this disturbance to remain attached to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, spreading rain showers to Mindanao, northern Maluku, and Borneo throughout the early part of the upcoming week before emerging as a weak area of low pressure in the South China Sea by late in the week. Tropical cyclone development with Invest 94W is not anticipated.

Satellite Overlook, Tropical Disturbance 94W – 1 January 2017 0000 UTC


Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2017 Westernpacificweather.com