2016 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season Predictions
** THE RESULTS **
Earlier last year, the team at WesternPacificWeather.com put our heads together and came up with our outlooks on the 2016 season. At that time things were very quiet, and we were bored while we waited on the first storm to form. Well, it did, as did many others, and it turned out to be a pretty active year in the WPAC, but still about average. Here’s how we did on our predictions!
Overall, most of us saw a “less-than-typical” year shaping up as we headed into the season, due in large part to the relaxation of the Strong El Nino event of 2015, and hints of a developing La Nina ahead. The La Nina did not quite develop to the levels that were expected, which lent a hand into keeping the tropical weather numbers near climatological norms.
Let’s see how the guys broke down the 2016 Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Season…
Accur. Rate (%)*
|Meteorologist Robert Speta||
|Meteorologist Mike Adcock||
|Weathercaster Patrick Malejana||
|Weathercaster Michael Williams||
|Actual 2016 Totals (unofficial)||
* Denotes departure from actual totals
The accuracy rate is quite unscientific, simply averaging out the prediction/actual average for each prediction category (TS, TY, STY) regardless of direction, and then averaging out the totals.
Meteorologist Robert Speta was our most accurate prognosticator, with an average accuracy rate of 92.3% overall. He was only -1 on his prediction for the tropical storm outlook, was a bit higher at +3 on his view of typhoon formation potential, and was dead-on with his call for 6 super typhoons on the year.
Weathercaster Patrick Malejana was next best in average accuracy with a rate of 81.0%. He underestimated the general level of activity of the season, with the tropical storm outlook missed by -4, but made up ground by only being -1 on typhoon formation potential, and -2 on super typhoon expectations.
Meteorologist Mike Adcock was next with an average accuracy rating of 75.3%. Mike’s also underestimated the activity level of the season in general, as his overall outlook trended lower than the actual figures, with his tropical storm outlook at -2, typhoon formation potential at -2, and super typhoon expectations at -3.
Finally, Weather caster Michael Williams finished last in the group with an average accuracy rate of 74.6%. Michael also underestimated the overall level of the 2016 season, missing the tropical storm outlook by -5, typhoon formation potential by -3, and super typhoon expectations at -2.
Overall, the WPACWX.com team finished with an overall average of 82.3%, with a general underestimation of the level of 2016 tropical cyclone activity. We missed the tropical storm outlook by -3, the typhoon potential by -2, and the super typhoon expectations by -1.
Thus ends the 2016 Northwestern Pacific Typhoon Season, and overall, we think we did pretty well. Congratulations to our Robert Speta, and stay tuned, because our outlook for the 2017 season will be here before you know it!
Here’s a little bit about each of the prognosticators:
Meteorologist Robert Speta is a Broadcast/Operational Meteorologist and the creator of westernpacificweather.com. He has eight years of Operational Meteorology experience in the United States Navy and is currently on air casting the weather for international news network NHK World. Robert is also a member of the American Meteorological Society.
Meteorologist Mike Adcock is an Operational Meteorologist with 16 years of experience in the United States Air Force. During that time, Mike has forecasted weather in six of seven continents with a focus on aviation meteorology. Currently, he is working toward a MS Geosciences degree from Mississippi State. Mike has also been a member of the American Meteorological Society since December 2010.
WeatherCaster Patrick Malejana is based in Long Island, NY where he is working as an Operations Administrator with a private jet charter company. Pat lived in the Philippines for 15 years and frequent typhoons hitting the country got him interested with meteorology. Pat has a B.S. in Aerospace Systems Technology.
WeatherCaster Michael Williams is a long-time veteran of radio, where he has been a news director and anchor for several stations for the majority of his career. Being born in the sub-tropical region of the USA, Michael became interested in tropical weather at a very early age, spending many years in self-study of tropical cyclones and related phenomena. Now living in the Philippines, Michael lends his talents in public information delivery to the website and on Facebook for residents of the Western Pacific.
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