Western Pacific Tropical Update – 2 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: Tropics remain quiet with scattered showers along the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

Tropical Analysis – 2 January 2017 0300 UTC

Current Storms: None

5-Day Tropical Discussion:Little remains of Invest 94W as it passes between Mindanao and Indonesia. A few isolated rain showers will pass across the Visayas and Mindanao as the country remains embedded within the Northeast Monsoon—the Amihan. The Automatic Tropical Cyclone File (ATCF) maintained by the U.S. has dropped 94W and is no longer an area of interest. With that, tropical cyclone development with Invest 94W is not anticipated.

A second disturbance along the ITCZ persists around 145-150°E, southwest of Chuuk, and is now identified as Invest 95W. Circulation with 95W is weak and broad with scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms, but little to no change in development is expected. Micronesia will see increased showers from this disturbance as it passes south of the Carolines. It is expected to remain at a low latitude, progressing westward, and will increase precipitation probability for the southern Philippines on Friday.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance 95W – 2 January 2017 0000 UTC

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike



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