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Western Pacific Tropical Update – 4 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: Strong Northeast Monsoon flow and wind shear persist across the basin while a weak disturbance persists east of Palau.

Tropical Analysis – 4 January 2017 0300 UTC


Current Storms: None

5-Day Tropical Discussion: Invest 95W was removed from the Automated Tropical Cyclone File. This is despite multiple model support—albeit weak—that has continued for consecutive runs and sustained convection along the north edge of the low pressure area. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue with this weak circulation. This activity exists south of Yap between 135° and 145° E longitude, with the western periphery of the disturbance approaching Palau. Regardless of its “invest” status, increased showers are expected for Yap and Palau through the end of the week. By Friday, showers will increase for Mindanao as the remnant circulation approaches the eastern coast of the Philippines. There is better support for the circulation by the beginning of next week as the low passes Palawan and enters the South China Sea. If convection can persist and the remnants of 95W can avoid wind shear, there remains a slim possibility this can develop into a tropical depression, but chances continue to appear low at this time.

Another circulation has developed near the Equator by 157° E longitude. Given its proximity to the Equator and the continued support of the ITCZ remaining far south, development is not anticipated.

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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