Western Pacific Tropical Update – 6 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: New invest posed to bring heavy rain to central and southern Philippines this weekend.

Tropical Analysis – 6 January 2017 0600 UTC

Current Storms: None

5-Day Tropical Discussion: The remnants of 94W are passing across the southern Sulu Sea while being enveloped by the larger circulation of the remnants of 95W—the latter of which is now the subject of a new invest, numbered 96W.

Invest 96W is battling wind shear as it nears Mindanao. This shear is expected to persist and even get worse over the next couple days, which will prohibit significant development of this disturbance. Given that, forecast models hold this low pressure area intact with the Canadian and Navy models being aggressive toward tropical cyclone formation. These solutions have been the outliers during the lifespan of 95W-96W, thus less weight is being placed on this scenario. Although chances for tropical cyclone development remain low given the poor environmental conditions and close proximity to land, it cannot be ruled out that the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) will press ahead with a minor tropical depression. Moreover, it is in the JMA 24- and 48-hour forecast that this disturbance will become a tropical depression. If the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) concurs, it would gain the local name Auring, last used in 2013.

Regardless of development, Invest 96W is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall across eastern Mindanao and central Visayas over the weekend with the threat of urban flash flooding, especially in areas prone to poor drainage. Rainfall rates of 100-150 mm per day is possible.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance 96W – 6 January 2017 0600 UTC

A new disturbance (“A”) is beginning to take shape near the International Dateline. This area is not expected to develop in the near term, but will be monitored for increased rainfall across Kiribati and the Marshall Islands.

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike



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