Western Pacific Tropical Update – 7 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: PAGASA names the first tropical depression of the year. Heavy rain on deck for Mindanao and Visayas.

Tropical Analysis – 7 January 2017 0300 UTC

Current Storms: Tropical Depression Auring (96W)

At 7 January 2017 0300 UTC (11 am Philippine Time), the center of Auring was estimated about 255 km east of Bislig, Surigao del Sur or about 355 km east-northeast of Davao City. Auring is moving slowly westward with sustained winds of 45 km/h and gusts up to 55 km/h. Central pressure is approximately 1006 hPa.

At 11 am, PAGASA has placed all provinces within CARAGA region under Signal 1. Winds of 30-60 km/h are expected in these provinces within the next 36 hours.

The main threat from Auring will be moderate to heavy rains across Mindanao and the Visayas over this weekend. This can lead to localized flash flooding and landslides. For the latest, continue to monitor Western Pacific Weather on Facebook as our team posts breaking information on Auring.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression Auring (96W) – 7 January 2017 0300 UTC

PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals and Forecast Track, Tropical Depression Auring – 7 January 2017 0300 UTC

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Earlier today, JMA and PAGASA issued advisories regarding the aforementioned tropical depression, tagged Invest 96W by the US Navy. Wind shear and land interaction will continue to inhibit development of Tropical Depression Auring. Given this, I do not foresee numbered advisories from JTWC at this time as the chances for further development are low. However, regardless of the name and status, Auring will bring heavy rain to Mindanao and the Visayas over the next few days. Over the next five days, Auring will continue to track toward the west-northwest before exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Thursday morning.

A disturbance just west of the International Dateline will be our next target area after Auring. Much like the former, significant development is not anticipated. It will need to be monitored for increased rainfall across Kiribati and the Marshall Islands. By the end of the forecast period, there remains some potential for this disturbance to spin into a threat area or possibly a tropical depression. Regardless of formation, this will also bring showers to Palau and Mindanao by next weekend.

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike



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