Archive | January 8, 2017

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 8 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: Auring spreading heavy rain across northeastern Mindanao and the Visayas.

Tropical Analysis – 8 January 2017 0300 UTC

Current Storms: Tropical Depression Auring (01W)
At 8 January 2017 0300 UTC (11 am Philippine Time), the center of Auring was estimated about 75 km east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur. Auring is moving slowly west-northwestward with sustained winds of 50 km/h and gusts up to 70 km/h. Central pressure is approximately 1004 hPa.

At 11 am, PAGASA has placed provinces within northern half of Mindanao, portions of the Visayas under Signal 1. Winds of 30-60 km/h are expected in these provinces within the next 36 hours.  Get the latest from our team on the Westernpacificweather Facebook page.

The main threat from Auring will be moderate to heavy rains across Mindanao and the Visayas for the remained of the weekend and early this week.  On Saturday, observations across northeastern Mindanao reported 50-100 mm of rain.  This continued rainfall can lead to localized flash flooding and landslides. For the latest, continue to monitor Western Pacific Weather on Facebook as our team posts breaking information on Auring.

JTWC joined JMA and PAGASA in calling Auring a tropical depression.  ASCAT microwave imagery senses winds of 45 km/h wrapping into the center, which was enough justification for the upgrade, although Dvorak satellite presentation is still lacking.  Auring’s circulation is still elongated and not well organized.  Compounding these issues will be land interaction over the next few days.  This will inhibit any further development until Auring emerges in the Sulu and South China Seas.  Any intensification at that point will be limited thanks to unfavorable environmental conditions.  The forecast track keeps Auring in a west-northwest direction as it remains along the subtropical ridge, influenced by the Northeast Monsoon.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression Auring (01W) – 8 January 2017 0300 UTC

PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals and Forecast Track, Tropical Depression Auring – 8 January 2017 0300 UTC

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Outside of Auring, we’re monitoring a disturbance in the eastern half of the Caroline Islands.  This should continue to maintain a low profile, spreading isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Federated States of Micronesia.  Significant development is not anticipated, but there is a low possibility toward the end of the 5-day forecast for this disturbance to spin into a tropical depression. Regardless of formation, this will also bring showers to Palau and Mindanao by next weekend.

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike



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