Archive | January 9, 2017

Daily weather brief – Tuesday, January 10, 2017

NWPAC outlook, 10 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 10 JAN



NORTH

Bone-chilling cold has settled in over the northern half of the north region as a new Siberian surge moves through the region. Temperatures region-wide will be frigid, with eastern China and Japan seeing the warmest readings as highs struggle to reach double-digits. The saving grace will be that, aside from sea-effect snow along the western prefectures and higher terrain of the Japanese archipelago, most locations will see just some scattered clouds and plenty of sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Ulaanbaatar -17 -28 1 -18 Mostly fair
Vladivostok -11 -22 12 -8 Partly cloudy
Beijing 3 -7 37 19 Partly cloudy
Seoul 2 -8 36 18 Partly cloudy
Tokyo 11 2 52 36 Partly cloudy
Shanghai 9 5 48 41 Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL 

High pressure to the north associated with the latest cold air surge from Siberia will start to build into the central region over the next 48 hours, helping to lower temperatures across the region. Clouds and showers will continue across offshore locations in the region, and some heavier rain is likely over southern China and northern Indochina as moisture streams in from the southwest. Temperatures will be seasonably mild across the region, with readings in the upper teens (low-60’s F) to low 20’s (low 70’s F).

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Kunming 17 8 63 46 Partly cloudy
Hong Kong 22 19 72 66 Mostly fair
Taipei 20 17 68 63 Scattered showers possible
Naha 19 16 66 61 Mostly cloudy
Hanoi 24 21 75 70 Periods of rain

 

SOUTH

Drier air will allow plenty of sunshine to beam down on south and central Indochina today, helping temperatures rise to above-average levels across the peninsula. The sheared-off remnants of TD01W will wash out over the northern half of the Philippines today, while more southerly locales bask in the humid, tropical air and pick up some showers and scattered thunderstorms at the peak of afternoon heating.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Siem Reap 34 22 93 72 Partly cloudy
Ho Chi Minh 33 23 91 73 Partly cloudy
Manila 27 24 81 75 Periods of rain
Davao City 31 23 88 73 Scattered thunderstorms likely
Brunei 32 24 90 75 Scattered thunderstorms likely
Singapore 32 26 90 79 Thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

As TD01W washes out over the Philippines, attention turns to the newly-designated 97W INVEST to the east…

TAAG. 10 JAN

TAAG. 10 JAN



Tropical depression 01W has been sheared apart as it passed over the Philippines this weekend, with remnant moisture from the now-defunct system washing out over the central and northern half of the Philippine archipelago. A new disturbance has now cropped up to the east in the form of 97W INVEST, and long-range forecast models show little development of this system as it tracks in a very similar fashion as the previous system.

97W. 10 JAN

97W. 10 JAN



Elsewhere across the region, plentiful moisture will combine with the warm sunshine to bring about a good chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms across much of the region, especially in western Micronesia where 97W INVEST is located. For more on the tropics, please refer to the “Western Pacific Tropical Update” by meteorologist Mike Adcock on this website.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Guam 30 25 86 77 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Yap 29 25 84 77 Thunderstorms likely
Palau 29 25 84 77 Scattered thunderstorms likely
Chuuk 30 27 86 81 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Pohnpei 29 26 84 79 Scattered thunderstorms possible
Majuro

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

28

25 82 77

Mostly fair

 

Have a tubular Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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HEAVY RAINS HAVE TRIGGERED DEADLY FLOODING ACROSS THAILAND

At least 19 have been killed in Thailand this past week following unseasonably heavy rains which have ravaged the country.

The Interior Ministry says the disaster, triggered by a downpour that has hammered the region since New Year’s day, has affected more than 330,000 households.

 

An airport in the main southern city of Nakhon Si Thammarat was closed for 4 days due to the heavy rains. Authorities also suspended train services across much of the region.

This of course has also impacted resort destinations such as Phuket and Krabi which normally is crowded with foreign tourists in January thanks to the dry season and pleasant weather. But many people have reportedly changed or canceled their plans.

 

A Thai research institute estimates damage to the tourism and farming industries will top 2.3 billion dollars.

 

This recent heavy rainfall is really thanks to the north east monsoon but also a tropical low developing west of Thailand enhancing moisture flow over the country.  Just in the past 24hrs PRACHUAP KHIRIKHAN, Thailand south of Bangkok received 267mm of rainfall certainly contributing to the floods.

 

The heavy rains should continue to Wednesday before tapering off as the tropical low in the Bay of Bengal lifts north and towards Burma.

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 9 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: Auring slowly progressing through the Visayas.  Rain remains main threat.

Tropical Analysis – 9 January 2017 0600 UTC

Current Storms: Tropical Depression Auring (01W)
At 9 January 2017 0600 UTC (2 pm Philippine Time), the center of Auring was estimated near Cebu City. Auring is moving westward at 9 km/h with sustained winds of 40 km/h and gusts up to 65 km/h. Central pressure is approximately 1006 hPa.

Earlier in the day, PAGASA declared Auring as a low pressure area.  As a result, all provinces in the Philippines are no longer under a Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal.  JMA and JTWC continue to advise on this cyclone as a tropical depression.  Regardless of the status, heavy rainfall remains the threat.  Continue to monitor local weather bureaus as heavy rain warnings remain in place. Get the latest from our team on the Westernpacificweather Facebook page.

Satellite presentation with Auring continues to underscore that this is a weak cyclone… if it still is indeed a tropical depression.  Convection is limited and the low-level wind pattern is rather disturbed considering the land interaction.  Auring should continuing drifting in a generally westward direction across the Visayas Monday and Tuesday before emerging in the South China Sea by Wednesday.  If it survives the journey across the Visayas (if it hasn’t already fell apart as PAGASA suggests), the probability for intensification in the South China Sea remains low considering the present shear.  The remnants of Auring are expected to spread showers across southern Vietnam by Friday evening/Saturday morning.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression Auring (01W) – 9 January 2017 0600 UTC

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Outside of Auring, we’re monitoring a disturbance in the western Caroline Islands, south of Guam. This disturbance should continue to progress toward Yap state and Palau over the next couple days.  I wouldn’t be surprised if it is tagged as an Invest before that point.  There continues to be a lot of similarities in the forecast models compared to Auring as it approached the Philippines.  Considering this, we may have another low pressure area or potentially a tropical depression on our hands toward the end of the week as heavy rain is in the forecast for Mindanao and the Visayas once again.should continue to maintain a low profile, spreading isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Federated States of Micronesia. Significant development is not anticipated, but there is a low possibility toward the end of the 5-day forecast for this disturbance to spin into a tropical depression.

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2017 Westernpacificweather.com