Western Pacific Tropical Update – 9 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: Auring slowly progressing through the Visayas.  Rain remains main threat.

Tropical Analysis – 9 January 2017 0600 UTC

Current Storms: Tropical Depression Auring (01W)
At 9 January 2017 0600 UTC (2 pm Philippine Time), the center of Auring was estimated near Cebu City. Auring is moving westward at 9 km/h with sustained winds of 40 km/h and gusts up to 65 km/h. Central pressure is approximately 1006 hPa.

Earlier in the day, PAGASA declared Auring as a low pressure area.  As a result, all provinces in the Philippines are no longer under a Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal.  JMA and JTWC continue to advise on this cyclone as a tropical depression.  Regardless of the status, heavy rainfall remains the threat.  Continue to monitor local weather bureaus as heavy rain warnings remain in place. Get the latest from our team on the Westernpacificweather Facebook page.

Satellite presentation with Auring continues to underscore that this is a weak cyclone… if it still is indeed a tropical depression.  Convection is limited and the low-level wind pattern is rather disturbed considering the land interaction.  Auring should continuing drifting in a generally westward direction across the Visayas Monday and Tuesday before emerging in the South China Sea by Wednesday.  If it survives the journey across the Visayas (if it hasn’t already fell apart as PAGASA suggests), the probability for intensification in the South China Sea remains low considering the present shear.  The remnants of Auring are expected to spread showers across southern Vietnam by Friday evening/Saturday morning.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression Auring (01W) – 9 January 2017 0600 UTC

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Outside of Auring, we’re monitoring a disturbance in the western Caroline Islands, south of Guam. This disturbance should continue to progress toward Yap state and Palau over the next couple days.  I wouldn’t be surprised if it is tagged as an Invest before that point.  There continues to be a lot of similarities in the forecast models compared to Auring as it approached the Philippines.  Considering this, we may have another low pressure area or potentially a tropical depression on our hands toward the end of the week as heavy rain is in the forecast for Mindanao and the Visayas once again.should continue to maintain a low profile, spreading isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Federated States of Micronesia. Significant development is not anticipated, but there is a low possibility toward the end of the 5-day forecast for this disturbance to spin into a tropical depression.

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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