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Western Pacific Tropical Update – 10 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: Remnants of Auring fading away as attention turns to new disturbance in the basin.

Tropical Analysis – 10 January 2017 0300 UTC

Current Storms: None

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Auring has now been downgraded by JMA, JTWC, and PAGASA to a low pressure area as it traverses the Sulu Sea toward Palawan.  Rain and thunderstorms persist across portions of Luzon and the Visayas.  We still cannot rule out periods of flash flooding with these remnant showers, espeically over Bicol and the Eastern Visayas.  Otherwise, the Northeast Monsoon will resume its control over the country.  Auring is expected to continue moving westward through the South China Sea.  No significant reintensification is expected, but southern Vietnam will monitor this storm as it nears Friday night and Saturday, bringing a round of rain.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance Auring (01W) – 10 January 2017 0000 UTC

We continue to monitor a disturbance in the western Caroline Islands, now identified as Invest 97W.  97W will continue to affect Yap and Chuuk states as well as portions of the Mariana Islands with rain showers before drifting westward.  Still anticipating a very similar solution between 97W and Auring–that is, remaining weak before getting a dose of the Philippine Sea Effect.  Right now, forecast models are split how 97W evolves.  Right now, trust is in place with the model suite keeping 97W at a low latitude, entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday, and moving into Mindanao as a disturbance or a weak depression by Friday morning.  The outlier camp keeps 97W more north and east, allowing it to intensify in the Philippine Sea.  We’ll watch this, but this scenario does not appear favorable at this time.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance (97W) – 10 January 2017 0000 UTC

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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