Archive | January 11, 2017

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 11 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: Low pressure associated with Auring re-invigorated as it enters the South China Sea.

Tropical Analysis – 11 January 2017 0600 UTC

Current Storms: None

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Auring have redeveloped, with satellite presentation looking as good–if not better–than when it was traversing the Philippines as a tropical depression.  That said, JTWC, JMA, and the NWS have not resumed Dvorak analyses on Auring, with the former siting the “system is too weak to classify.”  This may change in the near future, however, as latest satellite imagery shows convection wrapping around the center enough to warrant the resumption of analyses.  Auring is expected to continue moving west-southwest for the next 4-5 days before it makes landfall in southern Vietnam.  No significant reintensification is expected, but the classification as a tropical depression cannot be ruled out.  Although Auring is not being tracked in JTWC’s ABPW bulletin, it is forecast to become a tropical depression per JMA’s 48-hour forecast.  Regardless of status as a tropical cyclone, rainfall of 20-50 mm is expected in the southern provinces of Vietnam late in the week.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance Auring (01W) – 11 January 2017 0600 UTC

Invest 97W remains poorly organized this Wednesday with sporadic showers and thunderstorms around a weak low-level circulation centered southeast of Palau.  For the near-term, 97W is expected to remain weak as it moves westward.  Forecast solutions have throttled back on development.  However, there remains a low chance for a tropical depression forming as it nears the Philippines.  Much like Auring before, whether this is classified as a depression or not, heavy rain will be the primary threat with the potential for rainfall of 200-300 mm across the Eastern Visayas and Bicol regions on Friday and Saturday.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance (97W) – 11 January 2017 0600 UTC

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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WINTER WEATHER SETUP DOMINATES JAPAN, BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN PLACE

This week Japan will see a classic winter weather setup for the country and for people who enjoy the snow the reason why Japan is so famous for how much comes down during the winter months.

 

Overall some places this week from Hokkaido to Hokoriku could see well over a meter of snowfall. In fact in Aomori prefecture the snow depth at one location topped 200cm being the first now in all of Japan to hit the 2 century mark.

 

What can we thank for all this fun fluffiness? Well of course Japans famous sea effect snowfall. (Video below)

 

A look at the Surface Analysis for North East Asia shows the winter weather setup dominating Japan. But typically this only lingers for 1-2 days at a time, and rarely longer and as not as potent as we are seeing this week.

Winter Weather Setup

This is thanks to a blocking high north of a low pressure area near Kamchatka. This is holding that low in place which in return forces it to continue to interact with the high pressure over China setting up a tight pressure gradient across the sea of Japan.  (WEATHER 101: the tighter the pressure gradient the higher the winds) Typhoon strength wind gust up to 126kph are to be expected along the sea of Japan coastline including Akita, Niigata and Gifu prefectures through the work week. Other areas further north could see up to 108kph along with the additional snowfall in the forecast.

Through the next 24hrs;

Hokoriku 70CM

Tohoko and Northern Kanto 50CM

Tokai 30CM

 

Of course one can expect travel delays along with the threat of Avalanche with this weather setup. For those excited maybe about hitting the slopes do keep in mind there is a high threat of avalanches for central Japan and also in to Hokkaido.  I personally would not be venturing down any steep back country slopes over the next several days. Today is a storm day, a good day to stay in the trees and have fun.

Daily weather brief – Wednesday, January 11, 2017

NWPAC outlook, 11 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 11 JAN



NORTH

Frigid air remains over the entirety of the north region as high pressure builds in behind the latest push of Siberian air. Temperatures in the north are at rock-bottom levels, while to the south and east, it’s a little warmer, but no one will see a high above 10C (50F) today. With the air stagnation present, air quality will once again approach dangerous levels across Beijing this afternoon. The stalled tail-end of the most recent frontal system will bring about cloudy skies over eastern China, while the rest of the region enjoys a day filled with sunshine and a few scattered clouds.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-18

-27 0 -17

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

-11

-24 12 -11

Partly cloudy

Beijing

6

-6 43 21

Partly cloudy

Seoul

2

-3 36 27

Mostly fair

Tokyo

8

0 46 32

Mostly fair

Shanghai

9

5 48 41

Mostly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

The aforementioned stalled cold front will bring a good chance for clouds and scattered showers over the Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan today, and a weak impulse of energy and moisture streaming in from the southwest will help generate showers over the higher terrain of south-central China this afternoon and will stir up plenty of rainfall over southern China and northern Indochina. Temperatures across the region will be generally mild, with the warmest readings over the southern provinces of China.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

16

8 61 46

Scattered showers likely

Hong Kong

23

18 73 64

Partly cloudy

Taipei

21

17 70 63

Scattered showers likely

Naha

19

17 66 63

Mostly cloudy

Hanoi

23

16 73 61

Periods of rain

 

SOUTH

The remnants of TD01W continue to spin about to the immediate southwest of the Philippines and are combining with the strong seasonal monsoonal flow to help bring rainfall to the northern Philippines.  Drier air remains over central and southern Indochina, keeping the clouds to a minimum and allowing for very warm afternoon temperatures under plentiful sunshine. To the south, tropical moisture remains locked in, and with the heating of the afternoon sun, could help generate a few scattered thunderstorms over these areas.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

22 91 72

Partly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

32

23 90 73

Partly cloudy

Manila

28

24 82 75

Periods of rain

Davao City

31

23 88 73

Scattered showers possible

Brunei

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Singapore

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

The remnants of TD01W look to be recovering a bit to the southwest of the Philippines, while 97W INVEST doesn’t look too good this morning…

TAAG, 11 JAN

TAAG, 11 JAN



The remnant low pressure trough from what was TD01W appears to be getting its act back together a bit over the Palawan Island group of the southwestern Philippines. This system is projected to remain weak as it gets caught up in the strong flow of the seasonal northeast monsoon, getting pushed down towards southern Vietnam in the coming days. 97W INVEST remains weak, and is not looking as healthy as it was yesterday. Long-range forecasts keep this system very weak as it takes a path very similar to the one 01W followed, ringing rainfall into the southern and central Philippines later this week.

01W/97W-full-11 JAN

01W/97W-full-11 JAN



Elsewhere across the tropics, showers and thunderstorms will be more plentiful in western Micronesia, care of 97W INVEST, while some scattered pockets of instability will ring a chance of rain to eastern Micronesia and the Marshall Islands. Continental air intrusion will also kick up a few showers over Wake Island, while high pressure keeps the skies mostly clear over the Mariana Islands. For more information on the tropics, please refer to the “Western Pacific Tropical Update” by meteorologist Mike Adcock on this website.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

29

25 84 77

Mostly fair

Yap

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Palau

28

26 82 79

Thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

Pohnpei

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

27

23 81 73

Scattered showers possible

 

Have a wacky Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com