Bottom Line Up Front: Low pressure associated with Auring re-invigorated as it enters the South China Sea.
Current Storms: None
5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Auring have redeveloped, with satellite presentation looking as good–if not better–than when it was traversing the Philippines as a tropical depression. That said, JTWC, JMA, and the NWS have not resumed Dvorak analyses on Auring, with the former siting the “system is too weak to classify.” This may change in the near future, however, as latest satellite imagery shows convection wrapping around the center enough to warrant the resumption of analyses. Auring is expected to continue moving west-southwest for the next 4-5 days before it makes landfall in southern Vietnam. No significant reintensification is expected, but the classification as a tropical depression cannot be ruled out. Although Auring is not being tracked in JTWC’s ABPW bulletin, it is forecast to become a tropical depression per JMA’s 48-hour forecast. Regardless of status as a tropical cyclone, rainfall of 20-50 mm is expected in the southern provinces of Vietnam late in the week.
Invest 97W remains poorly organized this Wednesday with sporadic showers and thunderstorms around a weak low-level circulation centered southeast of Palau. For the near-term, 97W is expected to remain weak as it moves westward. Forecast solutions have throttled back on development. However, there remains a low chance for a tropical depression forming as it nears the Philippines. Much like Auring before, whether this is classified as a depression or not, heavy rain will be the primary threat with the potential for rainfall of 200-300 mm across the Eastern Visayas and Bicol regions on Friday and Saturday.
Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.
Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike
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