Archive | January 12, 2017

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 12 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: Remnants of 01W (Auring) regenerate in the South China Sea.

Tropical Analysis – 12 January 2017 0600 UTC

Current Storms: Tropical Depression (01W/Auring)
The remnants of Tropical Depression Auring have regenerated into a tropical depression, per JMA.  At 12 January 2016 0600 UTC (1 pm Indochina Time), the center of the depression was estimated 635 km east of HồChí Minh City.  The depression is moving slowly toward the west with sustained winds of 35 km/h and a central pressure of 1006 hPa.

All other relevant meteorological agencies in the area maintain the depression as a low pressure area while Dvorak analyses remain unavailable as the “system is too weak to classify.”  The Vietnamese National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) have not issued any warnings for the depression beyond a forecast track.  Rainfall totals of 20-50 mm are expected across the southern regions of Vietnam, with Ninh Thuận, Bình Thuận, and Bà Rịa-Vũng Tàu provinces under the greatest threat from gusty winds.  No further intensification is anticipated.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression (01W/Auring) – 12 January 2017 0600 UTC

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Invest 97W has remained poorly organized today, with convection well removed to the north.  As it’s currently within the Philippine Area of Responsibility, PAGASA has begun issuing warnings on the low pressure area.  There remains a very low chance for tropical cyclone development that decreases as the disturbance closes in on the Philippines.  Periods of heavy rain with possible urbanized flash flooding will affect Bicol and the Eastern Visayas as it passes through.  Once the disturbance interacts with the archipelago, it will likely be torn apart where any redevelopment is not likely.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance (97W) – 12 January 2017 0600 UTC

After Invest 97W, the Western Pacific moves into a less favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation where there is a lower probability for tropical cyclone development.  As such, elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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SEVERE WINTER STORM DOMINATES JAPAN, WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

Blizzard conditions persist across Japan today as the sea effect snow pattern continues to dominate the weather setup. Nearly a Meter of snow is expected to fall just through Friday on top of the snow base that has already accumulated through the past several days.

The largest snow base via JMA is in Aomori where up to 237cm of snow is on the ground. Yet some ski resorts in Hokkaido are reporting nearly 300cm.

Just through the past 24hrs some areas have picked up 60cm plus of fresh snowfall. Of course this has made for some amazing powder conditions for those fortunate enough to be on the slopes mid-week it has also resulted in dangerous avalanche conditions and travel weather.

Pretty much all south facing exposed slopes in central Honshu are under a moderate to considerable risk of Avalanche following this weeks heavy loading from the fresh snow.  Unless you are going somewhere you know very well or staying on moderate slopes I would recommended not heading in to the back country anytime soon.  

 

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The snow has already taken its first victims this week, in Kagura two snowboarders went missing in the back country on Wednesday. Good news they filed the proper paper work before heading out back and people knew where they were going, but still they have now been missing for over 24hrs while blizzard conditions continue to dominate. You can follow the story here for updated information. (IN JAPANESE) http://www3.nhk.or.jp/lnews/niigata/

Winter Weather Setup

THE FORECAST

 

This same weather pattern will continue to dominate heading in to the weekend with even colder temperatures surging in out of Siberia. Heading from Thursday in to Friday below average temperatures will surge across Japan dropping the mercury even in Tokyo below the freezing point. Do remember it will stay dry in Tokyo since all the snow is getting dumped in the mountains.

 

The cold air will be with the same north west wind pattern at least through the weekend and in to Monday and Tuesday of next week. This means each day depending on local effects and the exact wind pattern of the day much of Hokoriku and Tohoku will have the potential to see up to 50cm or more daily.

The tight pressure gradient will also keep the winds high too keep in mind. Winds could be gusting over 40kph on mountain peaks and wind chills will well below zero.

At Nozawa Onsen where the world famous fire festival is taking place this week temperatures will drop to around -10 to -15 during wind gust, especially after the sun sets. Do bundle up!

 

 

 

Dialy weather brief – Thursday, January 12, 2017

NWPAC outlook, 12 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 12 JAN



NORTH

Very cold air remains over the northern half of the north region as a frontal system stalls to the west and slides slowly to the south and east over Japan and the Korean Peninsula. The front is draped over central Japan, and stretches back to the west into coastal northeastern China, with frigid conditions behind the front, and moderately warmer conditions ahead of it. Japan will see the warmest day ahead as they remain south of the front for the time being, but sea-effect snow will fall over the western provinces of northern Japan and over the higher terrain of northern and central Japan, and temperatures across the archipelago will start to fall significantly as the front passes through later this afternoon. While a few showers will fall over eastern China, the remainder of the region will see a pleasant, but very cold, day ahead. It should be noted that air quality conditions in Beijing will approach hazardous levels later this afternoon, at the peak of the busy day as the aforementioned frontal system stalls out overhead and air stagnation sets in.

City High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Ulaanbaatar

-18

-32 0 -26

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

-11

-23 12 -9

Mostly fair

Beijing

5

-6 41 21

Mostly fair/Hazardous air quality

Seoul

2

-8 36 18

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

11

2 52 36

Mostly fair

Shanghai

9

2 48 36

Scattered showers likely

 

CENTRAL

The central region will see a wet day ahead as moisture funnels in from southwest along the energy channel feeding the latest frontal system that moved through. Taiwan will see the heaviest rainfall associated with this system, while the Ryukyu Islands and continental Asia will see scattered showers. Southern China and northern Indochina will see some periods of rain as well, as tropical moisture from the east slide into the region and interacts with drier surge-oriented air from the north. Temperatures will be cool to mild across the region, with high ranging from the mid-teens C (low 60’s F) to the lower 20’s C (low 70’s F).

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

16

7 61 45

Scattered showers likely

Hong Kong

19

16 66 61

Scattered showers likely

Taipei

22

17 72 63

Periods of rain

Naha

20

17 68 63

Scattered showers likely

Hanoi

15

13 59 55

Periods of rain

 

SOUTH

Rainfall associated with 01W has moved out of the northern Philippines, and drier air is settling in over the area, as well as over central and southern Indochina, reducing rainfall potential for these areas. Tropical moisture remains over the southern half of the region, and will get another healthy shot from 97W INVEST, which is slowly making its way into the region from the east. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are likely over the southern Philippines, northern Indonesia, Brunei, Singapore and the Malay Peninsula today as the warm sunshine lifts up the plentiful moisture in place. Temperatures will be quite warm over the entirely of the south region, especially in areas with fewer clouds.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

23 91 73

Partly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

33

24 91 75

Partly cloudy

Manila

30

24 82 75

Partly cloudy

Davao City

31

23 88 73

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

Remnants of TD01W have re-generated over the South China Sea while the weak disturbance known as 97W INVEST continues to move through western Micronesia…

TAAG, 12 JAN

TAAG, 12 JAN



The disturbance formerly known as TD01W has improved, and J.M.A. has re-classified the system as a TD once again. The general forecast trend takes this system into southern Vietnam over the next couple of days. 97W INVEST has once again flared up as it trods westward. The system is currently located to the west-northwest of Palau Island; however, a large shield of convection is displaced to the north of the system, and stretches far to the west of the center. This moisture will start to affect southern and central Philippines today, and last through the weekend. Forecasts show this system to remain weak as it passes through the archipelago.

01W/97W full, 12 JAN

01W/97W full, 12 JAN



The remainder of the region will see a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms under a warm afternoon sun, while easternmost locales should see just a few scattered clouds. For more information on the tropics, please refer to the “Western Pacific Tropical Update” by meteorologist Mike Adcock on this website.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

29

25 84 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Partly cloudy

Wake

27

23 81 73

Partly cloudy

 

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com