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Western Pacific Tropical Update – 12 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: Remnants of 01W (Auring) regenerate in the South China Sea.

Tropical Analysis – 12 January 2017 0600 UTC

Current Storms: Tropical Depression (01W/Auring)
The remnants of Tropical Depression Auring have regenerated into a tropical depression, per JMA.  At 12 January 2016 0600 UTC (1 pm Indochina Time), the center of the depression was estimated 635 km east of HồChí Minh City.  The depression is moving slowly toward the west with sustained winds of 35 km/h and a central pressure of 1006 hPa.

All other relevant meteorological agencies in the area maintain the depression as a low pressure area while Dvorak analyses remain unavailable as the “system is too weak to classify.”  The Vietnamese National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) have not issued any warnings for the depression beyond a forecast track.  Rainfall totals of 20-50 mm are expected across the southern regions of Vietnam, with Ninh Thuận, Bình Thuận, and Bà Rịa-Vũng Tàu provinces under the greatest threat from gusty winds.  No further intensification is anticipated.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression (01W/Auring) – 12 January 2017 0600 UTC

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Invest 97W has remained poorly organized today, with convection well removed to the north.  As it’s currently within the Philippine Area of Responsibility, PAGASA has begun issuing warnings on the low pressure area.  There remains a very low chance for tropical cyclone development that decreases as the disturbance closes in on the Philippines.  Periods of heavy rain with possible urbanized flash flooding will affect Bicol and the Eastern Visayas as it passes through.  Once the disturbance interacts with the archipelago, it will likely be torn apart where any redevelopment is not likely.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance (97W) – 12 January 2017 0600 UTC

After Invest 97W, the Western Pacific moves into a less favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation where there is a lower probability for tropical cyclone development.  As such, elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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