Archive | January 13, 2017

Western Pacific Tropical Update – 13 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: 01W still meandering in the South China Sea.

Tropical Analysis – 13 January 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: Tropical Depression (01W/Auring)
Watches/Warnings:  None
Hazards:  Nothing significant to report.
Discussion:  JMA continues to advise on 01W as a tropical depression, although no other agency–including the Vietnamese NCHMF–are warning on this system.  Despite the strong shear present, extensive showers and thunderstorms are present–displaced well north and west of the center.  Light to moderate rain coupled with occasional gusty winds are expected across southern regions of Vietnam as the disturbance drifts westward.  No further intensification is anticipated.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression (01W/Auring) – 13 January 2017 0600 UTC

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Invest 97W remains poorly organized, battling shear that is displacing convection well to the north of the low-level “circulation” (and I use that term loosely). Occasional heavy rain is expected over portions of Bicol and Eastern Visayas with scattered showers elsewhere in the Visayas and southern Luzon regions.  No further development is anticipated.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance (97W) – 13 January 2017 0600 UTC

After Invest 97W, the Western Pacific moves into a less favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation where there is a lower probability for tropical cyclone development. As such, elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike

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DANGEROUS SNOW STORM DOMINATES JAPAN

An absurd amount of snowfall continues to dominate Japan today bringing brilliant snow conditions for those hitting the slopes this coming weekend but also dangerous travel weather and an increased risk of Avalanche.

First lets discuss what is bringing all of this snowfall.  Well of course Japans famous sea effect snowfall. (Video below)   A look at the Surface Analysis for North East Asia shows the winter weather setup dominating Japan. But typically this only lingers for 1-2 days at a time, and rarely longer and as not as potent as we are seeing this week. This is thanks to a blocking high north of a low pressure area near Kamchatka. This is holding that low in place which in return forces it to continue to interact with the high pressure over China setting up a tight pressure gradient across the sea of Japan.  (WEATHER 101: the tighter the pressure gradient the higher the winds) Typhoon strength wind gust up to 126kph are to be expected along the sea of Japan coastline including Akita, Niigata and Gifu prefectures through the work week. Other areas further north could see up to 108kph along with the additional snowfall in the forecast.

 

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Over the next 24hrs up to 90cm of snowfall is still possible in Hokoriku with another meter on top of that through Saturday and Sunday. On another note those in Tokyo there is a slight risk of snow Saturday afternoon through Evening, I wouldn’t say its 100% though since it might be to dry at the surface creating virga snow over the city, but the chance is still there.

For starters snowboarders and skiers (if you’re a blader you will drown, that is all) will have lots of powder to have fun with this weekend. Do note white out conditions and chilly temperatures really are going to dominate. But if you can get over that on piste conditions even will be superb over the coming days.  The snow should come down heavy enough that lines will be reset over the course of minutes throughout Saturday and Sunday.

I say on piste though, if you leave the ski resorts you run the risk of a extreme threat of Avalanche. When warnings like the one are posted below even the most skilled skiers sit back and go nope. Mother nature is no match, just stay at the resort and have fun kicking up the smooth powder stashes.  Avalanche report here. 

TRAVEL: The Japan Department of Infrastructure, Land and Transport has put out a advisory telling people to stay indoors or try not to travel this coming weekend unless during a emergency.  White out conditions will make roadways across Hokoriku very slick and dangerous especially mountain roads which already are challenging especially for people visiting the area.

 

The storm should start to calm on Monday but scattered snow showers will continue in to Tuesday before a break finally arrives mid-week.

Follow James Reynolds on Twitter, he is in Niigata this week documenting this storm.

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Daily weather brief – Friday, January 13, 2017

NWPAC outlook, 13 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 13 JAN



NORTH

Very cold air continues to dominate much of the north region today as we head into the weekend. The big story this weekend is the snowfall expected in parts of western Japan as the latest storm system drags in very cold air over the relatively warmer Sea of Japan, and gets a lift from the topography throughout the western and central prefectures. This scenario is forecast to bring about a significant snowfall event over these areas, leading to the potential for avalanches in the mountainous terrain. Anyone planning to visit these areas over the weekend should exercise extreme caution.

JAPAN snow outlook, 13 JAN

JAPAN snow outlook, 13 JAN



Elsewhere across the region, clouds and a few snow showers are likely over southeastern Russia and the Korean Peninsula, while fog and low clouds will keep conditions cool and clammy across eastern china. Air quality across Beijing continues to degrade and stagnant air and high pressure remain locked in.

 

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-15

-29 5 -20

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

-11

-24 12 -11

Mostly cloudy

Beijing

2

-8 36 18

Partly cloudy/Haz. air quality

Seoul

-1

-11 30 12

Snow showers likely

Tokyo

10

0 50 32

Mostly fair

Shanghai

11

1 52 34

Fog and low clouds

 

CENTRAL

Clouds and showers will dampen sprits over the central region as a frontal system remains stalled out over the region. The heaviest precipitation will be found over the Ryukyu Islands, while scattered showers will prevail to the south and west as far as northern Indochina. Temperatures will be held back a bit by the cloud-cover and rain, with most locations only reaching the mid to upper teens C (low-mid 60’s F).

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

16

7 61 45

Scattered showers likely

Hong Kong

16

15 61 59

Mostly cloudy

Taipei

17

14 63 57

Scattered showers likely

Naha

18

15 64 59

Periods of rain

Hanoi

16

14 61 57

Scattered showers likely

 

SOUTH

The south region is dealing with two major plumes of moisture associated with tropically-oriented systems as the remnants of 01W move into Indochina, and moisture from the degrading 97W INVEST moves into the Philippines. Most of the rainfall will begin this weekend in Vietnam, Cambodia, and eastern Thailand, but parts of the Philippines has already seen the rainfall begin.

WPAC TPW, 13 JAN

WPAC TPW, 13 JAN



To the south, plentiful tropical moisture remains in place, lending to a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Where the sun shines the most, temperatures will be very warm, while the remainder of the region will also see highs in the lower 30’s C (Near 90 F).

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

23 91 73

Mostly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

34

24 93 75

Partly cloudy

Manila

31

24 88 75

Partly cloudy

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

33

24 91 75

Partly cloudy

Singapore

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

01W and 97W INVEST continue to weaken as the atmosphere continues to dry out over much of the tropics…

TAAG, 13 JAN

TAAG, 13 JAN



01W, which JMA still labels a tropical depression on surface maps, has basically fallen apart due to strong wind shear and dry atmospheric conditions. This system will continue to degrade as it gets pushed to the west-southwest by the strong seasonal northeast monsoon. 97W INVEST has also been showing signs of degradation, as the convection has separated from the very weak surface low pressure, and has been pushed to the west by the strong northeast monsoon. This system is currently bringing rainfall to the eastern Visayas in the Philippines, and this moisture will slide across the Visayas and southern Luzon over the weekend.

01W/97W full, 13 JAN

01W/97W full, 13 JAN

Elsewhere across the tropics, much of the moisture has been carried away to the west by the most recent disturbances, and as the recent M.J.O. (Madden-Julian oscillation0 phase wanes and drier air comes in from the north, we find most of the remaining moisture to be located well below 10 degrees latitude. Most locations across the tropics can expect a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms today, but the action will be quite isolated and light. For more information on the tropics, please refer to the “Western Pacific Tropical Update” by meteorologist Mike Adcock on this website.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

Chuuk

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

Majuro

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

27

24 81 75

Mostly fair

 

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com