Western Pacific Tropical Update – 13 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: 01W still meandering in the South China Sea.

Tropical Analysis – 13 January 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: Tropical Depression (01W/Auring)
Watches/Warnings:  None
Hazards:  Nothing significant to report.
Discussion:  JMA continues to advise on 01W as a tropical depression, although no other agency–including the Vietnamese NCHMF–are warning on this system.  Despite the strong shear present, extensive showers and thunderstorms are present–displaced well north and west of the center.  Light to moderate rain coupled with occasional gusty winds are expected across southern regions of Vietnam as the disturbance drifts westward.  No further intensification is anticipated.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression (01W/Auring) – 13 January 2017 0600 UTC

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Invest 97W remains poorly organized, battling shear that is displacing convection well to the north of the low-level “circulation” (and I use that term loosely). Occasional heavy rain is expected over portions of Bicol and Eastern Visayas with scattered showers elsewhere in the Visayas and southern Luzon regions.  No further development is anticipated.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance (97W) – 13 January 2017 0600 UTC

After Invest 97W, the Western Pacific moves into a less favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation where there is a lower probability for tropical cyclone development. As such, elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike



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