Western Pacific Tropical Update – 14 January 2017

Bottom Line Up Front: 01W closer to Vietnam; now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.

Tropical Analysis – 14 January 2017 0600 UTC

Active Storms: Tropical Depression (01W/Auring)
Watches/Warnings: None
Hazards: Scattered thunderstorms across southern Vietnam.  Seas 2-3 m.
Discussion: JMA and NCHMF are warning on this tropical depression.  Despite limit change in appearance on satellite, JTWC upgraded this area from being “too weak to classify” to medium risk, followed by an upgrade to a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.   That said, convection remains well displaced to the northwest as the center of circulation is exposed due to the strong wind shear present.  Although data may later justify advisories to be re-initiated by JTWC, no further intensification is anticipated.  If JTWC begins advisories, it will maintain the 01W identifier.

Forecast track with 01W is west-southwest, with landfall possible along the Mekong River Delta.  Regardless of the center track, the bulk of the rain remains well north of the center, which will affect South-Central, Southeast, and the Central Highland regions of the Vietnam.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Depression (01W/Auring) – 14 January 2017 0600 UTC

5-Day Tropical Discussion:
Invest 97W is poorly organized and facing wind shear.  Occasional heavy rain continues over portions of Bicol and Eastern Visayas.  No further development is anticipated.

Satellite Snapshot, Tropical Disturbance (97W) – 14 January 2017 0600 UTC

Elsewhere in the Western Pacific, tropical cyclone development is not expected to occur over the next five days.

Until next time, have a great day and take care. -Mike



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