Forced evacuations are in place in parts of Northern Mindanao including Cagayan de Oro following days of heavy rains in the flood prone city. Two casualties have been reported due to the rising waters in the region, one in Cebu and one in Cagayan.
Red alerts are still in place for Misamis Oriental province in northern Mindanao as the rain continues today due to a persistent shear line combined with the remnants of a weak low pressure area over the central and southern Philippines.
This means all school and many businesses in Cagayan de Oro will remain closed through Tuesday and probably through Wednesday as the rain is forecasted to continue in the area.
Is it a tropical system?
Yes and no, what we are seeing is a wave of energy that started east of the Philippines work its way in to Visayas over the weekend. At the same time a cold surge blasted south crashing in to this wave forcing rapid uplift and severe thunderstorms to line up across the Philippines.
As the surge pushed south it forced the shear line south as well, this is why the flooding originally started in Cebu and then worked its way in to Mindanao. At this time the forecast does not look promising, the overall intensity of the showers should taper off through mid week but the north east monsoon will continue to created scattered rainfall through the rest of the week in southern Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Something this area indeed does not need more of.
Cagayan is known for being flood prone. In 2011 Tropical Storm Washi killed over 1,000 people but possibly up to 2,500 after heavy rains surged in the city forcing the Cagayan river to over flow its banks.